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06/03/2014by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Alcohol in Pouches – Fad or Business Reality?

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Packaging and labeling are one of the key factors driving alcohol purchasing decision for an average consumer. For years, the alcohol packaging industry focused on developing sleek, sophisticated bottles with elegant labels, a significant factor in brand positioning. Beer was amongst the first alcoholic beverages to be poured into something other than glass container. Beer cans gained popularity several decades ago, however always posed the problem of lack of resealability, one of the most important package attributes for consumers. In wine segment, sales of carton box (e.g. Tetra Pack) and bag-in-box packaged wine started to accelerate in early 2000s, though these were mostly associated (sometimes not without a reason) with substandard quality products. This has continued to improve, however till date, it is the bottle that still rules alcohol packaging, and any other form of packaging in alcohol drinks generally meets with consumers’ skepticism and assumption of inferior quality.

With a relatively new concept of alcohol sold in pouches, it is unreasonable to expect a different reaction, with associations with baby beverage rather than classy adult drink. However, something is buzzing in the alcohol pouch packaging industry, and while still marginal, several launches of alcoholic drinks and beverages in this packaging format were welcomed with surprising consumer acceptance.

What’s the growth story so far?

In September 2012, Nielsen reports indicated that retail sales of pouch-packaged alcoholic beverages were about US$200 million annually (compared to US$12 million sales in a comparable period in 2010). This growth is being eyed by more and more producers, and invites market entries across new products, flavors, and alcohol types. Interestingly, it is being observed that this new packaging format brings additional sales and expands the market – while there is some level of cannibalization of existing sales with consumers shifting from purchases of bottled drinks to pouched drinks, there is a number of new consumers, who never bought such drinks before (and probably would not have tried them in bottled format, if it was not for the curiosity of trying a new drink in a pouch).

Ready-to-drink and frozen cocktails are currently the leading segment, in which pouches are gaining popularity. For instance, sales of several frozen cocktails such as margaritas and daiquiris, offered by brands such as Daily’s and Cordina in 187ml and 296ml pouches, are known to have witnessed healthy growth in 2012 in the USA, and it is expected that majority of growth will continue to be experienced in this market. The UK has also seen launches of pouched alcoholic drinks over the past few years; however, they were typically associated with summer season.

Another segment to have seen pouch launches was, surprisingly, vodka. In early 2013, Good Time Beverages launched its first Ultra Premium Vodka in flex pouches, positioning the product as an environmentally- and budget-friendly option. This was an addition to the existing line of pouched Good Time Beverages’ products, Bob & Stacy’s Premium Margarita and Big Barrel Spirits.

In wine segment, while multiple wineries in the USA, Australia, Europe, and South Africa have been using pouches for several years, the trend is yet to take off in mainstream use. This is mostly due to the fact, that the common perception of wine being a traditional and sophisticated product clashes with pouches being typically associated with hip, unsophisticated, low quality products. Launches of pouched wine products tend to focus around multiple-serve quantity pouches, e.g. launches by Echo Falls and Arniston Bay, both in 1.5 liter stand-up pouches with dispensers, launched in the UK in ASDA in summer 2013. The products were so popular that, ASDA followed with the launch of its own pouch wine brand. ASDA’s sourcing arm, IPL Beverages, which deals with bottling and pouching, said that the demand for pouched wines was so great that it led to sales forecasts being outstripped by 400% by the actual demand.

What’s so great about the pouches?

Contamination and oxygen barrier

Glass has long been considered the best material to store wine and other alcohols, mostly due to the fact that it is neutral and does not lend flavors to the bottle’s content, even during long-term storage. Alcohol was also too aggressive for most flexible packaging available in the market, affecting the layers of films used in such pouches and compromising their safety and durability. Therefore, previous limitations to the introduction of pouches in alcohols packaging were driven not by the problems with leakage or thickness, but rather with the right choice of materials and laminating – materials that would offer adequate protection and prevent product’s ingredients from changing their properties. The currently available pouches do not pose such problems, e.g. with triple-layer structure: polyethylene terephthalate, aluminum metalized film, and polyethylene. Instead, they offer very good oxygen barrier with around one year shelf life as the tap nozzle allows for one way flow, and once the beverage is poured, oxygen does not enter the container, extending the product’s freshness.

Ability to compete in economy price range

Selling alcoholic beverages, such as wine or vodka, in a pouch, enables the producer to compete against the glass bottle in the economy price range, both in single serving capacity, as well as larger 1.5-2 liter pouches. For instance, in 2012, the single-serve 10-ounce pouches of fruity malt-beverage alcoholic drinks by Parrot Bay or Smirnoff retailed for around $1.99 in the USA. Thus, it was a cheap, easy-to-carry option that offered these alcoholic drinks at a fraction of a bar or bottled equivalent price. In Europe too, economy packs of wine, sangria, and other drinks in larger 1.5 liter pouches meet with customer acceptance, allowing the producers to increase sales.

Lightweight for reduced transportation costs and greener label

The traditional glass bottle always brought challenges, due to its energy intensity in production process, as well as weight and fragility in transportation. Pouches, on the other hand, offer reduced weight and by far greater resistance in transportation, considerably reducing transportation costs (using less fuel to transport same amount of the product), at a lower risk of breakage. Pouches are also presented as a greener alternative to glass, as they do not require such energy-heavy production process. Additionally, many currently available pouches are increasingly made with recyclable materials. Overall, pouches are believed to offer an 80-85% reduced carbon footprint compared to glass (i.e. flexible film pouch is said to offer a carbon footprint of approximately 20% of traditional glass bottles). Also, producers indicate that in alcohol packaging, the cost of pouches stands at around 68% of the cost of traditional bottling.

Frozen single- and multiple-serve convenience

From consumer’s perspective, too, pouches have the potential to deal with some of the disadvantages inherent to glass bottles. Several alcoholic drinks launched in a pouch are positioned as straight-from-the-pouch, instant, ready-to-drink cocktails, that do not require the use of cork pullers or even glasses. Currently offered pouches, thanks to metalized layers, allow for faster cooling (about half the time required to chill a bottle), and can be frozen, while cans and bottles cannot. Such ready drinks are typically launched in single- or double-serve size, allowing the consumer to save time of preparing a real drink. There have been several launches in larger capacities as well, such as Pernod Ricard’s Malibu rum launched in 2010, at 1.75 liters pouch size. The product was not positioned as a single serve but rather emphasized it was enough for 10 cocktails, for use in larger gatherings or over period of time, thanks to resealable nozzle. Also in wines segment, pouches, thanks to their reduced weight and resistance, can be larger, at 1-2 liters. 2-3 liter pouches are particularly popular in food service sector, e.g. in restaurants selling wine by the glass.

Lightweight for on-the-go use by consumers

Reduced weight and resistance to breakage have found consumers’ acceptance, as pouched alcoholic beverages are often positioned as on-the-go, convenient, easy products for use in outdoor situations, picnics, concerts, boating, barbecues, etc. Convenience of pouches also comes from the pack’s stability thanks to the popular stand-up design, commonly offered reseability (in a form of a tap or screw cap, a considerable advantage over vast majority of cans). Pouches are believed to be stronger, safer, and more convenient for consumer transportation, and they eliminate the risk of an unpleasant realization of having left the cork puller at home.

Challenges and question marks

It is unlikely, to say the least, that the nearest future will see pouches enter the mainstream dinner-table use. As of 2013, pouches had rather limited application in retail alcoholic drinks markets globally, with differing levels of popularity across regions and seasons. The most significant challenge for this packaging format is still to build consumer trust in quality of an alcoholic drink sold in a pouch. Equally important challenge is to overcome the consumers’ perception that classy alcoholic beverages (wine, vodka) should come only in a bottle and perception of mismatch of pouched wine and traditional wine etiquette.

While the list of potential advantages of pouches in alcohol packaging is unquestionably robust, there is still a key question of the consumer’s long term acceptance of this packaging format. It remains unclear what it will mean to a range of alcoholic beverages, especially in wine, whisky, and vodka segments, which have traditionally positioned themselves in upper to premium segments. Will the pouches, no matter how sleek or elegant in design, affect such a brand positioning? Will they ever go beyond the outdoor use, and enter mainstream use (dinner tables in homes and restaurants)? Will a pouch be ever fully accepted in such sophisticated setups, or will the association with juices, baby drinks, or inferior quality remain too strong? And finally, while producers emphasize green aspects of pouches in terms of production and transportation, what is the real environmental impact of such pouches ending up in a landfill, considering that not all used pouches will enter recycling stream?

24/07/2013by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Auto-Financing in China – A Valuable Business Proposition

From a humble beginning in 1998, when state-owned banks were first allowed to provide car loans, automotive financing has come a long way in China. Vehicle loans are now available through commercial banks and automotive finance companies (AFCs), which are mainly non-banking financing companies (captive subsidiaries of automotive OEMs, both domestic and foreign). According to a 2012 report by Minseng and Deloitte, outstanding car loans are expected to grow over five times to reach US$ 160 billion during the next decade, from US$ 31 billion in 2011.

China has been a late bloomer when it comes to automotive finance, mainly because of its cultural mindset, which has been against credit-based consumption (houses are still paid for in cash, so a cash purchase of a car isn’t considered a big deal). However, in the last few years, the Chinese have become more open to the idea of credit and the trend of automotive finance has caught up, mostly with younger generations. About 80% of automotive financing consumers in China are individuals in the 20-40 years age group, according to a survey conducted by China Europe International Business School. The survey also found that 30% of buyers in this age group are likely to choose some form of auto financing, compared to only 10% of buyers over the age of 40.

Auto loan penetration rate currently is about 10% and is expected to triple by 2017. Developed automotive finance markets such as USA, UK and Germany boast of penetration rate of 92%, 74% and 70%, respectively; thereby highlighting the underlying potential in the world’s largest automotive market.

This potential hasn’t gone unnoticed and China now boasts of having close to two dozen automotive finance companies; however, these AFCs only account for one-fifth of the car loans market. The market is instead dominated by commercial banks, mainly the big four state-owned banks, largely thanks to their significant first-mover advantage over AFCs (state owned banks have operated in this segment since 1998, while AFCs started offering auto-financing in 2003).

Another disadvantage for AFCs vis-à-vis commercial banks is their inability to raise funds through bank deposits or by issuing bonds. In China, AFCs are only allowed to raise funds through inter-bank lending. Consequently, interest rates offered by AFCs to car buyers are higher, making their services less competitive. Moreover, AFCs also face a mismatch between the maturity of short-terms loans they have to take from banks and the maturity of the long-term car loans they provide to their customers. With such unfavourable financial conditions, AFCs find it tough to compete with commercial banks.

In spite of the many constraints, AFCs continue to set up their businesses in China (almost 10 new entrants over the past 24 months). One luring factor is China’s gradual opening-up of its domestic financial markets to foreign investors. The world’s second-largest economy is also considering allowing foreign AFCs to issue financial bonds in China. Moving from bank loans to bond financing, should help AFCs reduce funding costs and become more competitive. Bond issuance will also help them in extending the average maturity of their liabilities and create a better maturity match between their assets and liabilities.

The market potential for automotive financing in China is obviously huge, and with the gradual easing of regulatory barriers, foreign financing companies are much more comfortable setting up a shop in the country. This will lead to more competitive financing options for automotive consumers and will also go a long way in popularizing automotive financing concept in China.

11/04/2013by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Horse Meat Scandal That Has Nothing To Do With Horse Meat. Have We Been Fooled On Our Own Request?

In early 2013, an uninvited equine guest was found on several European beef-only plates, giving way to a series of accusations, finger-pointing and investigations. Meat adulteration scandal has now spread to allegedly involve slaughter houses, suppliers and meat-based food producers from across Europe, with names of France, Ireland, Romania, Poland, Germany and the UK popping up on the news. Regardless of the authorities’ investigation outcome, one thing stays for sure – the consumers’ trust in the meat processing industry, already not very strong, has been further shaken.

While DNA tests confirmed horse meat presence in several beef products (in some cases even 100% horse meat in supposedly 100% beef dishes), there is no certainty yet on how horse meat entered the food chain. And the problem is not just with horse meat, as pork was also found in beef-only products, with further investigation for donkey meat as well. Horse meat, as well as pork and donkey, are edible, and does not cause harm to humans per se, but the problem is big – it is consumer misinformation as well as the fact that since horse meat should not be found in beef products at all, we don’t know whether it met any safety standards. The scale and spread of the scandal may suggest that it was not a one-off case of a dishonest supplier, but rather a silent, probably not infrequent industry practice of deliberate product mislabeling.

Consumers are outraged at the ‘evil meat producers’ responsible for the malpractice. They announce their shaken trust in meat processing industry (and food industry in general). But this smells of hypocrisy on the consumer’s side as well. Majority of consumers across most markets (apart from a small health-conscious group) have long taught food producers one fundamental truth – price is the most important factor in their purchasing decisions, driving producers to take shortcuts wherever possible. While there is no justification for the malpractice and deliberate fraud, food producers and suppliers are oriented at cutting costs to deliver products at the demanded price yet still maintain margins. Same is true across other industries – we openly condemn child and underpaid labor in several Asian manufacturing centers, yet continue to demand extremely low prices on electronics, apparel, etc., knowing where and how it’s been produced (or conveniently forgetting about it at the time of purchase).

The consequences of the scandal around meat products are likely to go beyond a temporary dip in processed beef products sales. Early surveys in some of the European countries, such as UK, indicated that close to 1/3 adult consumers said they want to buy less processed meat (not only beef), indicating potentially harder times for producers across meat segments. This is likely to spike consumer interest in fish and seafood products. However, the changed meat demand dynamics might not necessarily lead to the lowering of meat prices, as more stringent safety and control procedures might allow prices to remain stable. The rapid, and in some cases unfair, finger-pointing towards suppliers from Central and Eastern Europe will continue to damage meat exports of these countries, unjustly affecting farmers and suppliers. Consequences will also include added effort by supermarket chains to rebuild the shaken trust in meat products, i.e. Tesco, Morrisons and Asda, for instance, will re-test meat products to ensure compliance and launching widespread reassurance campaigns; these will add to cost burden to the chains – costs that are eventually going to be passed onto the consumers.

It will be a difficult time for producers and suppliers found guilty of introducing horse meat to the human food chain, as under the pressure of public opinion, authorities aren’t likely to be easy on them. But meat producers who are able to be transparent and honest about their procurement and processing procedures, can actually benefit from the scandal, as more and more consumers will look beyond price and start to value quality (at least temporarily till the memory of the scandal is fresh).

So as the scandal unfolds, there are a few important questions here: Will it improve transparency of the supply chains in meat processing industry? Will it improve the quality of meat products we purchase and feed our families with? Will it force the authorities across Europe to improve control measures? Will it enforce correct labeling of products? And finally, will it make us, consumers, permanently shift our focus from price only to quality-oriented purchases? If the answer to these questions is ‘yes’, perhaps there is a silver lining to this scandal after all.

05/03/2013by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Ultimate Convenience Indian Style – Why Do Ready-to-eat Meal Producers Have a Difficult Job in India?

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After a long day at work, a tasty meal is every hard working man and woman’s dream. But, cooking such a meal late in the evening – more of a nightmare. Enter ready-to-eat meals. Throw a packet in the microwave and your main meal of the day is steaming hot in under five minutes. What could be faster, tastier, more convenient and cheaper than that? Many options, Indians respond.

The healthy growth of ready-to-eat (RTE) consumer meals (i.e. microwavable pouches containing ready dishes) has become a success story across many countries, where lifestyles are getting busier, disposable incomes are increasing and women are becoming an integral part of the workforce. The RTE industry is taking several emerging economies in Asia by storm, as dynamic demographic and economic transformations occurring in many of these economies drive increased interest in convenience sought in matters of food by the region’s inhabitants. The trend, though, is of uneven magnitude, with rural communities largely remaining deeply traditional about home-cooked food, besides having very limited financial capacity to afford RTE products or a microwave oven. However, the growing preference for such meals is so strong amongst middle class groups, that, overall, the RTE segment across Asian markets has become an attractive area of opportunity for food companies.

RTE foods sector is one of the most dynamic growth sectors in the packaged foods markets across Asia, and on a global scale, Asian consumers exhibit the highest interest in RTE meals. A 2007 AC Nielsen study revealed that seven out of top ten markets with the highest propensity to purchase RTE meals are Asian countries, with Thai consumers emerging as the world’s biggest fans of RTE products.

Surprisingly though, India does not feature in the list of top 10 RTE markets. Unquestionably, the country does enjoy most of the RTE foods market growth prerequisites – fast developing economy, expanding modern retail channels, dynamically growing middle and upper class, rising nuclear family format, soaring participation of women in workforce, rapidly rising incomes and the growing reality of hectic lifestyles driving the demand for convenience.

So where is India in this picture? Why does its name not appear in the list of attractive RTE meals markets? Why do India-made RTE food products have a bigger market internationally than domestically? What are the challenges that RTE producers such MTR Foods, ITC Foods, Heinz India or Haldiram’s face in their home territory?

The fact is that although there is a market for RTE products in India, its size is modest and its growth is slowing down. AC Nielsen estimates the Indian RTE market growth slowed from 44.9% in 2010 to 28.1% in 2011 (reaching INR 506 crore, or about USD 110 million). In comparison, the Thai RTE market grew by 105% during 2005-2010, with a strong, upwards trend that is set to persist.

The reasons for such differing dynamics are many, largely due to cultural background and the Indian consumer’s mindset. Here are six key reasons why RTE foods producers have a difficult job in the Indian market, reasons, that might make them reconsider RTE expansion plans:

Traditionally, Indians are accustomed to hot fresh food served straight from sizzling pots, mainly because of easy and cheap access to domestic help and primary cooking ingredients easily available for purchase. RTE meals, despite their convenience, have a hard job competing with home cooked food.
Busy Indian consumers look for speed and convenience, and there’s plenty of options in the food services sector – countless cheap order-in and take-out options, that also offer great advantages over RTE meals, especially as these are freshly cooked, a factor of great importance to Indian consumers.
Unlike in many other countries, RTE foods in India are more expensive than most order-in and take-out options. This, paired with the preference for freshness, tends to put RTE products at a disadvantageous position.
Despite growth in modern retail format, majority of Indians still do their food shopping in traditional stores, which have limited space and interest in carrying novelties such as RTE foods (organised food retail is estimated to still account for only about 3-5% of the total retail market).
Considering the hot climate, Indian consumers tend to be reluctant to trust the safety of a ready meal that has been stored and transported out of temperature-controlled supply chain, especially given the largely inefficient supply chain management.
Some RTE meals, which do require cold storage, also fall prey to inefficient supply chain management and frequent power cuts, which lead to rise in production costs, in turn translating into higher RTE product prices resulting in lower demand for such products.

In spite of the many challenges, the Indian RTE market is growing, though at much slower rate than once anticipated. Indian attitude towards meal from a pouch is changing, with growing social acceptability to consume such foods and to prepare meals in the microwave.

Producers are optimistic, as the mere size of the potential customer base offer vast opportunities, even with slower y-o-y growth. But they also remain cautious, citing improvements in supply chain and distribution management, growth in modern retail format, continuous growth in consumers’ disposable incomes as the main changes needed to occur for the Indian RTE market to actually take off. However, given that many of these transformations have been occurring over the past years, perhaps these form just a secondary problem. Perhaps the key prerequisite for RTE market growth is the change in the Indian consumer’s mindset – change that is the slowest to occur and hardest to influence by producers.

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