18th May 2017 was a busy week for India’s automotive industry. One would think that it was the financial year end which was causing all the drama, but not really.
It was the week when, to some people’s surprise and other’s ‘that was expected’ reactions, GM India decide to call it quits – no more of the beloved (?) Chevrolet brand on India’s roads anymore. Cars will continue to be produced (or so GM claims, at least for the time being), but only to be exported to other markets in the APAC region.
The fact that GM is withdrawing from India does not come as a surprise – GM’s Chevrolet brand hasn’t performed well in India, in spite of GM introducing new models in recent years. In the segment, in which GM introduced its vehicles (mostly hatchbacks), there had already been an intensive competition from the likes of Maruti and Hyundai, and more recently Nissan. It would have perhaps been better for GM had it introduced models such as Opel or even Cadillac to lure a wider segment of India’s population. One of the reasons OEMs such as Nissan, Honda, or Toyota have done well is that they constantly innovated for the India market, changed designs, and introduced new models and variants that catered to a wide customer base. GM seems to have fared poorly on that front. GM simply failed to sense of the pulse of India’s car buyer who looks for an all-inclusive deal: value-for-money + safety + luxury + service + brand appeal + etc., which clearly was not being provided by the American OEM.
As GM was announcing its exit, Volvo, a Swedish OEM, shared the ambitious goal of doubling its market share in India’s premium segment by 2020. Interestingly though, Volvo’s announcement to start assembling premium cars did not come as a surprise. It already has a good brand name in the CV segment and in the PV segment, the section of India’s customers who would buy a Volvo car already associates it with classy design and exceptional safety. Local assembly would, in fact, be a boost for Volvo if they are able to introduce locally made, India-priced cars as well as use this India production as a hub for South-east Asia exports. Indian car buyers are hungry for more and more international OEMs to enter the market and provide them with world-class products, and cars are no exception. Albeit late to the party, Volvo has the breadth of quality products and service competence to make a strong dent in the premium segment.
So, while 18th May was good for some and bad for quite a few, the dynamics of India’s automotive market continues to keep OEMs on tenterhooks – yes, there is a great opportunity if one gets the formula right, but the pill of failure can be extremely bitter.
An Uber self-driving car was reported getting into an accident in Arizona last month. But as the saying goes “any publicity is good publicity”, this also holds true for autonomous vehicles. The news sparked a discussion and shed some light on potential challenges the technology may face before it becomes available for commercial use. At the same time, it spread awareness about the level of safety testing being done to improve the technology before it is rolled out to the public. We are taking a look at what’s potentially in store for users waiting to see streets flooded with driverless vehicles.
Autonomous self-driving vehicles have been the talk of the industry for some time now, with some of the initial attempts to create a modern autonomous car dating back to 1980s. However, major advancements have only been made during the last decade, coinciding with advancements in the supporting technologies, such as advanced sensors, real-time mapping, and cognitive intelligence, which are perhaps the most crucial to the success of any autonomous vehicle.
Early advancements in the segment were led by technology companies which focused on developing software to automate/assist driving of cars. Some prime examples include nuTonomy, which has recently partnered with Grab (a ride-hailing startup rival to Uber) to test its self-driving cars in Singapore, Cruise Automation (acquired by GM in 2016), and Argo AI, which has recently received a US$1 billion investment from Ford. These companies use primarily regular cars/vans that are retrofitted with sensors, as well as high-definition mapping and software systems.
However, software alone is not capable enough to offer self-driving driving functionalities, therefore, automotive OEMs are taking the front seat when it comes to driving advancements in autonomous vehicles segment. New cars/vans, which are tuned to work seamlessly with this software, are likely to adapt better with the algorithms and meet stringent performance and safety standards required before they can be rolled out commercially. California-based Navigant Research believes that with its investment in Argo AI, Ford has taken a lead among such automotive OEMs in the race to produce an autonomous, self-driving vehicles.
Advanced levels of autonomy still to be achieved
In a nutshell, there are five levels of autonomous cars. Levels 1 through to 3 require human intervention in some form or other. The most basic level comprises only driver assistance systems, such as steering or acceleration control. Most common form of currently prevalent autonomy is Level 2, which involves the driver being disengaged from physically operating the vehicle for some time, using automation such as cruise control and lane-centering. Tesla’s current Autopilot system can be categorized as Level 2.
Level 3 involves the car completely undertaking the safety-critical functions, under certain traffic or environmental conditions, while requiring a driver to intervene if necessary.
Most OEMs developing autonomous cars target launching their vehicles in the next three to five years. Tesla is probably the closest, with its Model 3 car with Autopilot 3 system expected to be unveiled in 2018 (however, this depends on whether the regulations are in place by then). Nissan, Toyota, Google, and Volvo plan to achieve this by 2020, while BMW and Ford have set a deadline for 2021. Most of these companies are working on achieving cars with Level 3 autonomy, with a driver sitting behind the steering wheel to take over from the car’s programming as and when required.
Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles are deemed as fully autonomous which means they do not require a driver and all driving functions are undertaken by the car. The only difference is that while Level 4 vehicles are limited to most common roads and general traffic conditions, Level 5 vehicles are able to offer performance equivalent to a human driving in every scenario – including extreme environments such as off-roads.
Some OEMs, Ford in particular, are against the practice of using a human as a back-up, based on the understanding that a person sitting idle behind the wheel often loses the situational awareness which is required when he needs to take over from the car’s programming. Ford is planning to skip achieving Level 3 autonomy and target development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles instead.
Google is currently the only company focusing on developing a Level 5 autonomous car (or a robot car). The company already showcased a prototype that has no steering wheel or manual controls – a prototype that in true sense can be the first autonomous car. Tesla also plans to work on achieving the highest level of autonomy and plans to fit its cars with all hardware necessary for a fully-autonomous vehicle.
High costs continue to be challenging
While the plans are in place, one massive roadblock that persists in the development of these cars of future are costs. There are multiple sensors used in these cars, including SONAR and LIDAR. The ongoing research has helped to reduce the costs of sensors – Google’s Waymo has managed to reduce the costs of LIDAR sensors by 90%, from about $75,000 (in 2009) to about $7,000 (in 2016) – but they are still very expensive. The fact that a driverless car requires about four of these sensors, makes the cars largely unaffordable for consumers, and that puts off any discussion of feasibility of commercial production at this stage.
EOS Perspective
The first three months of 2017 have been particularly eventful, with several prototypes launched or tested. This activity is expected to increase further as companies try to meet their ambitious plans to roll out self-driving cars by 2020.
Initial adoption is likely to come from companies investing in commercial fleet, particularly those focusing on on-demand taxi or fleet, similar to what Uber or Lyft offer. Series of investments by large bus manufacturing companies, such as Scania, Iveco, and Yutong, also indicate how this technology will be the flavor of the future in public transport.
It is too soon to comment how and when exactly these autonomous vehicles can be expected to impact the way people choose to travel and how they may redefine the societies’ mobility. It is likely to depend on how the regulatory environment evolves to allow driverless cars in active traffic. Current regulatory environment for driverless cars is still at a nascent stage and allows only for testing of these cars in an isolated environment. Some states in the USA, particularly California, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, have opened up to testing of these cars in general public. However, recent accidents and cases of autonomous cars breaking traffic rules have put pressure on authorities to reconsider their stance until the cars become more advanced and tested to handle the nuances of public traffic. We might need to wait another decade or two before driverless cars are a reality in many markets. As things stand, endless efforts continue to go behind the curtain, as companies strive to win the race to develop highly autonomous and safe vehicles.
Will the new Tamo sub-brand be able to change Indian consumers’ perception of Tata Motors?
Tata Motors is out to regain its place in the Indian automotive market, where it continues to suffer from a lack of trust among consumers.
Launched in February, Tata Motors’ future mobility sub-brand, Tamo, is intended to act as an incubation center of innovation’ to push new technologies for developing future mobility solutions…
Due to various macroeconomic factors, the Indian automotive industry has not achieved its full growth potential during the last 12-18 months.
In addition, the government’s recent demonetization policy has impacted consumer spending and created an unfavorable environment for the auto industry on the whole.
Amid these challenges, key stakeholders within the auto industry were hoping for a favorable budget which could revive consumer demand and catalyze growth in the industry.
What was expected
The auto industry had a fair bit of expectations from the Union Budget 2017 (annual budget of India). Many industry players expected last week’s budget announcement to offer reductions in existing tax structures, various incentives for R&D expenditure and promotion of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs), and lower interest rates on auto financing. Some of the key items on the industry’s wish list were:
In order to support and boost government’s ‘Make in India’ program aimed at encouraging companies to manufacture their products in India, the industry expected some impetus in the form of lower taxation and other financial incentives
To increase vehicle sales, the industry expected lower interest rates on auto financing and larger fund allocation for the development of mobility infrastructure
EV and hybrid carmakers hoped for various tax exemptions and subsidies under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) scheme
OEMs expected the government to continue its 200% weighted deduction on R&D expenses
Industry players hoped for further clarifications with regards to incentives, timeline, etc. for vehicle scraping policy
What was received
Slashing 5% of corporate tax for enterprises with turnover under ₹500 million (US$7.4 million). This will benefit tier-2 and tier-3 auto components manufacturers and help them in further expanding their business as well as their R&D capabilities
The government earmarked ₹1,750 million (~US$25.9 million) in funding for the FAME scheme, which will further enhance the promotion of eco-friendly vehicles in the country
EOS Perspective
Although there were no substantial announcements in the budget that could directly benefit the auto industry, it surely has provided growth opportunities for it. Firstly, the government has increased its fund allocation by 11% to ₹640 billion (US$9.5 billion) for the development of national highways. In addition, 2,000 km of coastal roads are planned to be developed to improve the connectivity of ports and remote villages. These measures are expected to fuel demand for commercial vehicles in the coming years. Secondly, the income tax deduction of 5% for individual tax payers earning under ₹500,000 (US$7,425) is expected to boost personal consumption and spur demand among first-time buyers of passenger cars. Furthermore, the budget focused on boosting rural consumption by allocating more funds through various schemes. It is projected that these schemes will stimulate the demand for farming vehicles as well as two-wheelers in rural India.
For now amid no significant changes, all eyes are on the goods and services tax (GST) implementation expected to take place in July 2017. Industry experts anticipate that the rollout of GST will not only help to standardize various tax aspects, but it will also reduce costs across the industry’s entire supply and value chains. Therefore, a significant share of the impact will be seen only after the implementation of GST. Given the current scenario, we anticipate growth in the industry to rebound largely driven by government’s strong focus on enhancing consumer consumption and infrastructure development.
(This post, along with recently published article on auto financing in Nigeria, formed a mainstay of a broader coverage article titled ‘Affordable auto financing essential for OEM success in Africa’, contributed by EOS Intelligence to ‘Guide to the automotive world in 2017’, Automotive World’s annual publication covering a gamut of articles by leading global automotive industry analysts and consultants. The report was published in January 2017)
——————-
Banned in 2009 in order to curb the national import bill as well as the level of household debt, consumer credit was reinstated in Algeria in early 2016 to encourage the consumption of national products. In the local automotive industry, Renault Symbol is the only passenger vehicle currently available on auto financing, since Renault is the only locally assembled vehicle in Algeria. Can the return of consumer credit along with other policies provide the much needed boost to the nation’s passenger vehicle industry?
With a total population of approximately 40 million, Algeria is the second largest automotive market on the African continent. For the past several years, the country’s automotive industry has relied heavily on imports from Europe and Asia, importing nearly two million cars between 2012 and 2015. Today, the industry continues to be heavily dominated by imported vehicles, which account for approximately 85-90% of the total market. Passenger car manufacturing is limited, with Renault Algerie being the only domestic manufacturer (the Renault Algerie production plant is an assembly unit that builds the Symbol model from completely knocked down production for the Algerian market).
In 2009, all consumer loans were abolished by the government in an effort to reduce import bills as well as the level of household debt. However, in 2016, under the Executive Decree No. 15-114 of May 2015, consumer loans were made available on selected goods manufactured nationally. Under the scheme, car loans are available only on Renault Symbol, since it is the only locally-assembled vehicle.
Unlike in Nigeria and in several other African countries, where accessibility and affordability of car finance remain an immense challenge, in Algeria, a considerable part of the population can qualify for loans based on their monthly income level. As a result, major Algerian banks have seen a rapid surge of car loan applications. Although access to consumer finance has boosted car loan applications over the second half of 2016, this is not likely to significantly impact the industry growth, since consumers have no choice in selecting either brand or model. In addition, Renault’s current production volumes are very limited (25,000 vehicles per annum) and cannot meet the total local demand. However, due to the recently introduced reforms, the industry dynamics can be expected to change in the next few years.
EOS Perspective
The current economic environment, along with the implementation of licensing system and import quotas are likely to have a negative impact on the passenger vehicles industry in the short term. New vehicle sales can be expected to witness a decline to some extent in 2017. But the recent developments are also likely to push automakers to invest in setting up local production facilities. The arrival of major OEMs and their production projects is expected to serve as a growth catalyst for the local automotive industry over medium to long term. Once these projects become operational, local production volumes might increase significantly, which will provide consumers with more buying options. In addition, the ease of consumer lending could accelerate household spending, leading to increased bank lending in the automotive industry. As competition between banks intensifies, more innovative and affordable car financing solutions are likely to be available to consumers in Algeria, which can in turn attract many consumers across segments to buy new cars. The rising and young middle-class Algerians are likely to consider shifting from entry-level segment to the luxury segment, as they can spread their payments over a longer period of time (e.g. up to 60 months).
All of these efforts combined together – the recent industry reforms, auto manufacturing projects in the pipeline, and auto lending – can be expected to fuel growth in Algeria’s passenger vehicle industry.
Since the announcement of the National Automotive Industry Plan in 2013, the Nigerian automotive industry has witnessed an increased interest from several global automakers. As a result of the Plan as well as recent reforms made by the Nigerian government, PwC predicts Nigeria has a chance of becoming Africa’s auto manufacturing hub by 2050. However, the passenger vehicles market in Nigeria remains heavily dominated by imported second-hand cars, mainly due to the various industry challenges, including lack of access to auto financing. Could affordable auto financing schemes drive growth in Nigeria’s new passenger vehicles market?
Nigeria’s new passenger vehicle sales are far behind sales in countries such as Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco, despite the fact that Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. With a giant share of nearly 80%, Tokunbo vehicles (local name for imported used vehicles) heavily dominate the Nigerian passenger vehicles market.
Although there is a plethora of industry challenges that range from lack of cohesive government policies to poor infrastructure, one of the major growth constraints at present is the lack of affordable auto financing. Due to the limited accessibility and expensive financing options, new vehicles remain out of the reach for most Nigerians.
Currently, the cost of auto financing in Nigeria is exorbitant. Amid current economic environment and credit criteria, only a small segment of the population can obtain auto loans. Therefore, most Nigerians either buy used cars or save money over period of time to buy new vehicle for cash, stalling the new vehicle sales – retail customers accounted for less than one-third of all new cars sold in 2015.
This shows how lack of financing options is holding growth in a market segment with the highest growth potential. According to Lagos Business School’s research, an affordable vehicle finance scheme could boost Nigeria’s annual new vehicles sales to one million from 56,000 units at present.
EOS Perspective
Although the National Automotive Industry Plan and recent government reforms managed to attract some FDI in recent years, the Nigerian passenger vehicles industry still remains heavily reliant on imported used cars. As the government plans to curb the country’s auto imports, as a first step, the industry stakeholders should plan policies that can make new vehicle ownership more attractive to mass consumers.
The current credit facilities offered by banks are unattractive to many consumers due to cost and credit terms. In order to fuel growth in local vehicle manufacturing and new vehicle sales, the industry, along with the help of CBN, should develop more affordable vehicle credit purchase schemes targeted at the mass middle class population.
Further, as majority of consumers simply have little or no credit history, the current lending models are not going take the industry growth any further. By leveraging on alternative credit data such as payment data from utility and telecom companies, lenders should look beyond credit scores to segment a new customer base of creditworthy consumers.
For vehicle manufacturers and dealers, there is a tremendous opportunity to move up the value chain by setting up in-house financing with the help of the right partners. By offering innovative auto finance solutions, they can push the demand for new vehicles, especially among millennial and emerging middle class first-time buyers.
Whether Nigeria is capable of becoming the next auto manufacturing hub for Africa, only time will tell, but with better financing options, it can surely boost new car sales and help the local automotive industry to progress.
The increasing demand for fuel efficient, lighter, and safer vehicles is re-shaping the global automotive industry landscape. Significant pressure from regulators and customers is driving vehicle manufacturers to focus on design efficiencies using advanced technologies and materials. These factors have made vehicle material composition a vital part of every OEM’s overall manufacturing strategy.
Evolution of Material Composition over the Last Three Decades
The ongoing evaluation of the vehicle materials performance as well as continuous enhancements in the material composition of vehicles have always been on the agenda for automakers as vehicle weight has direct implications on driving dynamics and fuel consumption.
Due to the changing industry dynamics, automakers face growing pressure to develop lightweight vehicles that would on the one hand ensure lower environmental impact, and on the other hand provide safety and desired performance. This has led the material composition of passenger vehicles to evolve constantly over the past three decades.
In recent years, the increased regulatory and user pressure on auto manufacturers and materials suppliers to discover better and lighter materials has resulted in an increased use of plastics, with the declining role of metals in vehicle manufacturing (though metals are expected to still account for more than half (55%) of the vehicle materials composition in 2020).
Key Drivers of Material Composition Evolution
Regulatory Reforms
Stringent CO2 reforms such as corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) in the USA as well as EU CO2 emission targets for 2021 are forcing OEMs to make their vehicles more energy efficient.
These reforms have fueled R&D efforts as well as investments in vehicle lightweighting. According to Ducker Worldwide, a US-based research and consulting firm, by 2025, an average vehicle in the USA will have to reduce approximately 181kg of its total weight to achieve an average fuel economy that enables passenger vehicles to drive at least 54.5 miles per gallon of fuel. Clearly, as lightweight materials are a significant factor in meeting these rigorous regulations, OEMs are re-thinking their vehicle material composition.
In the coming years, one can expect the material composition to evolve further as these compliance deadlines approach nearer and OEMs begin to feel the pressure of monetary penalties for non-compliance. For example, in Europe, OEMs will have to pay at least €95 for every gram of CO2 above the set limit (95g) multiplied by total cars sold in 2020. This could translate to approximately €1 billion for Volkswagen and €300 million for Hyundai in penalties as per estimates by PA Consulting.
New Market Entrants
The entry of new players, such as Tesla and the Silicon Valley 3D printing start-up Divergent Microfactories, is transforming traditional vehicle manufacturing processes and technologies. By leveraging new materials and technologies, these companies have developed new vehicle models that offer better design and performance. This is encouraging traditional players in the industry to learn and adapt their designs and material composition choices in their upcoming vehicle models to can help them to achieve better design and fuel efficiencies.
Consumer Demands and Expectations
Over the years, consumers’ demands with regards to their cars have changed considerably, with expectations of improved fuel economy, safety, as well as driving experience through technology and functionality enhancements. These factors have driven the R&D, design, and material teams in the industry to innovate to satisfy the evolving consumer demands. As the tech-savvy consumers of ‘Generation Z’ (born post 1995) and the generations after ‘Z’ are surely going to be more demanding, one can expect the passenger vehicles to continue on the innovation path, which is likely to also consist of more advanced grades of plastics and composites as materials used for construction of these vehicles.
Technology Advancements
Improvements in materials as well as production technologies in the automotive sector have come on in leaps and bounds in the last 20 years. According to ArcelorMittal, a multinational steel manufacturing corporation, only five grades of steel were available to the automotive industry in 1960, while today, the industry has more than 175 grades of steel at its disposal for design optimisation. The current grades of steel, such as advanced high strength steel (AHSS) and ultra high-strength steel (UHSS) are much stronger, lighter, and processing friendly for various vehicle manufacturing applications.
The emergence of 3D printing, new design, testing, and processing tools is transforming automobile engineering. By leveraging technology and advanced manufacturing techniques, along with the strategic use of various materials, auto engineers today are designing body-in-white (BIW) structures that are far lighter than the ones in 1990s.
Current Trends in Material Composition
There is no single approach to material composition that applies across each passenger vehicle segment. In fact, material composition choices vary across regions, OEMs, vehicle type, manufacturing volumes, and target customer segment. For example, a pick-up truck in the USA uses far more aluminum than similar truck in Europe (138kg versus 59kg), while OEMs in Europe use more aluminum in their premium car segment than their US counterparts. At present, BIW material composition of an average passenger vehicle consists of a mix of various grades of steel, aluminum, iron, and plastics, while at the upper end of the market, the use of carbon fiber and composites is more prevalent.
While there has been a lot of talk about rapid uptake of advanced composites in vehicle production, integration of these materials creates significant challenges in designing, simulation, and parts processing. Besides these challenges, the industry still lacks good understanding of these materials at the engineering level for vehicle manufacturing applications. Current barriers range across issues in forming, joining, and corrosion, paired by high cost and limited supply of such materials. Therefore, the use of composites, especially in mainstream structural components, will remain very limited in the near future.
OEMs are also exploring nanomaterials and nanotechnology that can provide OEMs with better weight-to-strength ratios and help them with vehicle lightweighting. In addition, companies are looking into other advanced metals such as titanium and nickel-based alloys that offers high strength, low density, and superior resistance to corrosion and oxidation, thus make them ideal for use in vehicle manufacturing applications. However, these research projects are still in nascent stages with most of them in laboratory testing phases.
The Future of Material Mix
For OEMs, any material switch requires significant investments in R&D, production processes and equipment, repair infrastructure, securing material supply, staff training, etc. Many OEMs have already made significant investments in their existing production infrastructure that supports steel. Amid the current global economic environment and cost pressures that majority of automakers face, they are likely to refrain from making new capital investments. Therefore, steel is expected to continue its dominance in the near future due to its cost effectiveness and design flexibilities. Further, due to the consumers’ limited willingness to pay for weight reduction, the uptake of advanced lightweight materials will remain limited within the mass market segments of passenger vehicles.
Steel and aluminum are expected to be the two key materials that OEMs will use for their BIW components over the next four to five years. According to some industry players such as Jaguar Land Rover and Kaiser Aluminum, between 2016 and 2020, the use of aluminum in overall material composition is going to surge. According to Doug Richman, Vice President of Engineering and Technology, Kaiser Aluminum, the average vehicle in USA and Europe will constitute of 14% aluminum (kerb weight) by 2025, up from around 10% at present. This is primarily due to the fact that advancements in steel processing have nearly reached the tipping point that limits further massive weight savings. Additionally, aluminum is the easiest switch for the vehicle production line, compared to plastics, magnesium, and carbon fiber.
The pressure to change and improve the material composition to achieve regulatory compliance will work as a double-edged sword for OEMs. On the one hand, it will create opportunities for industry players to innovate by creating new designs using advanced materials and manufacturing techniques. This can help them to outperform their peers by enhancing their product and brand value proposition. On the other hand, integrating these materials will create more manufacturing challenges for OEMs and require them to pour more investments. This will not only lead to higher capex and opex, but it will directly impact their profit margins.
As vehicle design optimization remains the largest leverage available to vehicle manufacturers to satisfy regulatory compliance, there is no doubt that material composition will be an important part of every OEM’s fuel efficiency optimization strategy in the coming future. Going forward, automakers are likely to focus on component specific materials that will use different materials for different structural components. They will combine materials to take the best advantage of what each has to offer. Although the complexities at present are enormous, OEMs that will master the art of efficient manufacturing material mix will enjoy a huge competitive advantage.
The past two years have brought a mixed bag of experience for both Kazakh and Uzbek automotive industries. Passenger vehicles sales volumes witnessed growth, however at a varied rate, affected by internal as well as external macroeconomic disruptions and regional developments. Amid these conditions, 2016 is likely to be an uncertain year for the automotive industries in both countries. Although growth is likely to be challenging, by re-thinking its current focus along with the help of the right government policies, growth prospects over the long term are promising.
While the Kazakh and Uzbek economic and automotive industries scenarios differ to quite an extent, and both countries have witnessed a varied growth in recent years, their macroeconomic and sector dynamics have continued to remain under a strong impact of the global slump in oil prices, volatile economic and political environment in neighboring regions, as well as currency devaluations. While Kazakhstan automotive industry, with sales volume CAGR of 67.8% during 2010-2014, was one of the fastest growing auto markets worldwide, the country’s GDP was witnessing a fluctuating y-o-y growth ranging from 7.5% in 2011 to 4.4% in 2014. At the same time, while Uzbek’s economy posted strong and steady GDP growth at around 8% annually between 2011 and 2014, its car sales volume grew at a mere CAGR of 1.4% during 2010-2014.
Uzbekistan’s automotive industry is currently around twice the size of the industry in Kazakhstan, however its sales volume growth has recently stalled putting a question mark on Uzbek industry future growth dynamics. Kazakhstan might soon be seen to be catching up, with more than healthy sales volume growth rate, much of it supported by recent government reforms to boost local production and sales.
EOS Perspective
With Russia’s economy still struggling to recover amid Western sanctions, banking on vehicle exports is unlikely to take Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan any further. Passenger vehicles sales and production figures in most likelihood will continue to be impacted by internal as well as external macro-economic factors in 2016. In order to grow in the current environment, OEMs will have to look beyond their status-quo. Automakers will have to start focusing on domestic markets, which are still underserved with rapidly increasing demand for new cars.
The governments will have to work together with industry participants to create consistent as well as comprehensive industry policies that can attract more investments and stimulate growth. Measures such as financial incentives, special land allotment, creating SEZs, and various other schemes can significantly boost investor (both local and foreign) confidence. At the same time, reforms such as increasing local content requirement will drive more local producers to enter the industry. This might be a great help to the overall vehicle manufacturing and auto components industry in its development and growth trajectory.
With automakers trying to scale down their operations in Russia and Ukraine, growth opportunities are ripe for region’s manufacturers to capture and fill the market gaps in neighboring regions such as EEU and CIS. By leveraging their strategic location and proximity to European, CIS, and Asian markets, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan could potentially attempt to reinvent themselves as the region’s next automotive export hub.
Due to various macroeconomic factors, the Indian automotive industry has not achieved its full growth potential during the last 12-18 months.
Regulatory Reforms
