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New EU Pharma Legislation: Is It a Win-win for All Stakeholders?

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The revision of the EU pharmaceutical legislation represents a major achievement for the pharmaceutical sector within the European Health Union. The European Health Union, established in 2020 as a collaboration among EU member states, aims to effectively respond to health crises and improve healthcare systems across Europe. This revision provides an opportunity for the pharmaceutical sector to adapt to the demands of the 21st century, enabling greater flexibility and agility within the industry. The updated EU pharmaceutical legislation places a strong emphasis on patient-centered care, fostering innovation, and enhancing the competitiveness of the industry.

Limited market exclusivity to offer indirect opportunities to generic drug manufacturers

The COVID-19 crisis in 2020 raised a significant concern related to the accessibility and availability of life-saving medicines. The pandemic highlighted the significance of establishing effective incentives for the production of medicines to address medical needs during health emergencies.

Therefore, revised EU pharmaceutical legislation includes several rules and regulations to incentivize pharmaceutical companies to create a single market for medicines to ensure equal access to affordable and effective medicines across the EU. This is to be achieved through reducing the administrative burden by shortening authorization time, the duration required to review and grant approval for a new medicine, ensuring efficacy, safety, quality, and regulatory requirements. For example, the EU Commission will have 46 days instead of 67 days for authorization of medicine, whereas EMA (European Medicine Agency) will have 180 days instead of 240 days for the assessment of new medicine.

The new directive incentives are expected to help in improving access to medicines in all member states, in developing medicines for unmet medical needs, and in conducting comparative clinical trials (CCT). Comparative Clinical Trials are clinical research studies aimed at comparing the efficacy and safety of distinct medical treatments. Such trials usually entail two or more groups of participants, each receiving a different treatment in order to ascertain the more effective, safer treatment that offers better outcomes for a specific condition.

The legislation also focuses on maintaining the availability of generic drugs and biosimilars to help countries with more affordable and accessible medicines across the EU. It also aims to provide enhanced rules for the protection of the environment, such as mandatory ERA (environmental risk assessment) of medicines which focuses on discarding medicines properly by ensuring the minimization of environmental risks that are associated with the manufacturing, use, and disposal of medicine on the EU market, promoting innovation, and tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

The revised pharmaceutical legislation introduces a shortened period of regulatory protection, reducing it from 10 to 8 years, in order to establish a unified market for new medicines. This protection encompasses 6 years of regulatory data protection and 2 years of market protection. Companies can also benefit from an additional 2 years of data protection if they launch their medicine in all 27 EU member states and an extra 6 months of protection if their medicine addresses unmet medical needs or undergoes comparative clinical trials.

The revised EU pharma legislation also includes provisions for 2 years of market exclusivity for pediatric medicines and 10 years of market exclusivity for orphan drugs. The limited market exclusivity for branded drug manufacturers is expected to give the generic medicine makers more opportunities for production, hence improving the affordability and accessibility of medicines across the EU.

New EU Pharma Legislation Is It a Win-win for All Stakeholders by EOS Intelligence

New EU Pharma Legislation: Is It a Win-win for All Stakeholders by EOS Intelligence

Assessing changes for the European Medicines Agency

The EMA is responsible for the evaluation and approval of new medicines while monitoring the safety and efficacy of the medicine. The revised EU pharmaceutical legislation has bestowed significant responsibilities upon the EMA. These responsibilities encompass expediting data assessments and providing enhanced scientific advice to pharmaceutical companies. The legislation has both positive and negative impact on the EMA.

On the positive side, it aims to harmonize regulatory processes across member states, leading to a more streamlined and efficient system. This is expected to improve the agency’s ability to assess medicines promptly, facilitating faster access to innovative treatments. Additionally, the legislation encourages collaboration among regulatory authorities and promotes international partnerships, which strengthen the EMA’s regulatory capacity and scientific expertise. Further, the new regime is likely to foster EMA to prepare a list of critical medicines and ensure their availability during shortages.

The challenges that EMA might face if the new pharma legislation is passed include increased workload and resource requirements, which may necessitate additional staff, expertise, and funding. Complex areas such as pricing, pharmacovigilance, data transparency, and reimbursement could pose difficulties, potentially leading to delays and discrepancies.

Balancing affordability and access to medicines while incentivizing pharmaceutical companies’ investment in R&D under strict regulations, health technology assessments, and data transparency could be a challenge. EMA might face obstacles in training, resource allocation, and maintaining regulatory consistency. Both positive and negative impact should be considered while implementing the revised legislation.

Overriding drug patents could ensure supply, albeit with challenges

Overriding a drug patent is a legal mechanism allowing governments to bypass the patent protection of medicines and medical technology during emergency situations.

Although it poses challenges to the original patent holder company, including implications on revenue streams, investments, and profitability, it enables the granting of compulsory licenses to generic drug manufacturers, which increases production and reduces prices, particularly during health emergencies, while still considering the rights and interest of patent holders (through compensation for the use of their invention during the emergency period). It also encourages voluntary licensing that allows generic manufacturers to produce and sell products with the patent holder’s permission while respecting patent rights, instead of overriding the patent as it is in compulsory licensing.

Amidst concerns pertaining to intellectual property (IP) rights and the fact that this move might potentially discourage pharma companies from investing in R&D initiatives, the revised EU pharmaceutical legislation proposes overriding drug patents, as it would enhance the availability of affordable and cost-effective medicines throughout the EU. The production of generic drugs and biosimilars is likely to help increase market competition, drive innovation, and introduce improved treatments across the EU, maintaining a competitive edge.

Overriding drug patents might also have ramifications on international trade and relationships, leading to disputes and strained ties between countries. While considering these laws, policymakers need to exercise caution to ensure both accessibility of medicines and adequate investments in R&D.

New EU pharma legislation to benefit Eastern European countries

The difference in access to medicines between Eastern and Western European countries is evident from the fact that from 2015 to 2017, EMA approved 104, 102, and 101 medicines for Germany, Austria, and Denmark, respectively, compared to only 24 in Poland, 16 in Lithuania, and 11 in Latvia. These distinct differences in the availability of medicines between Eastern and Western European countries could be attributed to factors such as stronger healthcare systems in the Western region, higher healthcare budgets, and a greater ability to negotiate pricing and reimbursement agreements with pharmaceutical companies.

Western European countries have relatively better funded and more advanced healthcare infrastructure, including clinics, hospitals, and specialized healthcare services compared to Eastern European countries. Western European countries have a larger capacity to invest in research and development and contribute to the development of new medicines.

Moreover, differences in national healthcare policies contribute to the variation in pharmaceutical benefits and outcomes. The presence of a robust and extensive pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Western European countries allows for faster production and distribution of medical supplies. Consequently, Western European countries generally have better access to medicines and medical supplies compared to Eastern European countries.

The new EU pharmaceutical legislation helps Eastern European countries by reducing the exclusivity period of newly introduced drugs. This measure can prevent branded drug manufacturers from selling drugs exclusively to more affluent countries.

Moreover, according to experts, branded drug manufacturers are likely to only theoretically benefit from a competition-free market for 12 years because the majority of medicines launched by them are unlikely to meet all the new criteria in order to be granted this extended competition-free market access. This might compel branded medicine manufacturers to expand their sales base and sell in Eastern European countries as well to maximize their revenues.

New EU pharma legislation to spur a changing investment landscape

With the approval of new EU pharmaceutical legislation, it is expected that investment plans within the pharmaceutical sector will undergo significant changes. The regulatory changes, which aim to reduce the time and administration burden, could help in attracting lucrative investments by offering faster returns for pharmaceutical companies.

The new legislation can be expected to bring more investments in the R&D and manufacturing sectors by addressing critical healthcare challenges. Furthermore, the availability of generic and biosimilars would also help by creating opportunities for investment in the production/manufacturing of cost-effective medicines.

Moreover, enhancement in transparency and data sharing can also lead to increased collaboration and partnerships in R&D, attracting investments from the public and private sectors in the medical space.

However, investment plans could vary depending upon various factors such as intellectual property rights, market dynamics, competitive landscape, etc. Pharmaceutical companies need to assess new legislation in order to adjust their investment strategies to navigate potential challenges.

EOS Perspective

Analyzing the winning stakeholders of the revised EU pharma legislation could be challenging at this point in time owing to the fact that the new regime focuses on addressing issues of affordability and innovation across the EU which tend to be contradicting. These aims are to be achieved by incentivizing R&D and manufacturing sectors, enhancing market competition, and promoting collaboration.

It cannot be denied that there will be several challenges while enforcing these changes. A few of these challenges include maintaining intellectual property rights, marrying affordability with innovation, and addressing the specific needs of various patients in different countries. Specific resources and coordination will be required to overcome these hurdles. As a result, the success or failure of the EU pharmaceutical legislation for stakeholders will depend on the legislation’s actual implementation, adaptation to changing market dynamics, stakeholder engagement, as well as whether the balance between accessibility, affordability, and innovation while maintaining competitiveness is achieved and maintained in the long term.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Scarcity Breeds Innovation – The Rising Adoption of Health Tech in Africa

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Africa carries the world’s highest burden of disease and experiences a severe shortage of healthcare workers. Across the continent, accessibility to primary healthcare remains to be a major challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several health tech companies emerged and offered new possibilities for improving healthcare access. Among these, telemedicine and drug distribution services were able to address the shortage of health workers and healthcare facilities across many countries. New health tech solutions such as remote health monitoring, hospital automation, and virtual health assistance that are backed by AI, IoT, and predictive analytics are proving to further improve health systems in terms of costs, access, and workload on health workers. Given the diversity in per capita income, infrastructure, and policies among African countries, it remains to be seen if health tech companies can overcome these challenges and expand their reach across the continent.

Africa is the second most populated continent with a population of 1.4 billion, growing three times faster than the global average. Amid the high population growth, Africa suffers from a high prevalence of diseases. Infectious diseases such as malaria and respiratory infections contribute to 80% of the total infectious disease burden, which indicates the sum of morbidity and mortality in the world. Non-communicable diseases such as cancer and diabetes accounted for about 50% of total deaths in 2022. High rates of urbanization also pose the threat of spreading communicable diseases such as COVID-19, Ebola, and monkey fever.

A region where healthcare must be well-accessible is indeed ill-equipped due to limited healthcare infrastructure and the shortage of healthcare workers. According to WHO, the average doctor-to-population ratio in Africa is about two doctors to 10,000 people, compared with 35.5 doctors to 10,000 people in the USA.

Poor infrastructure and lack of investments worsen the health systems. Healthcare expenditure (aggregate public healthcare spending) in African countries is 20-25 times lower than the healthcare expenditure in European countries. Governments here typically spend about 5% of GDP on healthcare, compared with 10% of GDP spent by European countries. Private investment in Africa is less than 25% of the total healthcare investments.

Further, healthcare infrastructure is unevenly distributed. Professional healthcare services are concentrated in urban areas, leaving 56% of the rural population unable to access proper healthcare. There are severe gaps in the number of healthcare units, diagnostic centers, and the supply of medical devices and drugs. Countries such as Zambia, Malawi, and Angola are placed below the rank of 180 among 190 countries ranked by the WHO in terms of health systems. Low spending power and poor national health insurance schemes discourage people from using healthcare services.

Health tech solutions’ potential to fill the healthcare system gaps

As the prevailing health systems are inadequate, there is a strong need for digital solutions to address these gaps. Health tech solutions can significantly improve the access to healthcare services (consultation, diagnosis, and treatment) and supply of medical devices and drugs.

Health tech solutions can significantly improve the access to healthcare services (consultation, diagnosis, and treatment) and supply of medical devices and drugs.

For instance, Mobihealth, a UK-based digital health platform founded in 2017, is revolutionizing access to healthcare across Africa through its telemedicine app, which connects patients to over 100,000 physicians from various parts of the world for video consultations. The app has significantly (by over 60%) reduced hospital congestion.

Another example is the use of drones in Malawi to monitor mosquito breeding grounds and deliver urgent medical supplies. This project, which was introduced by UNICEF in 2017, has helped to curb the spread of malaria, which typically affects the people living in such areas at least 2-3 times a year.

MomConnect, a platform launched in 2014 by the Department of Health in South Africa, is helping millions of expectant mothers by providing essential information through a digital health desk.

While these are some of the pioneers in the health-tech industry, new companies such as Zuri Health, a telemedicine company founded in Kenya in 2020, and Ingress Healthcare, a doctor appointment booking platform launched in South Africa in 2019, are also strengthening the healthcare sector. A study published by WHO in 2020 indicated that telemedicine could reduce mortality rates by about 30% in Africa.

The rapid rise of health tech transforming the African healthcare landscape

Digital health solutions started to emerge during the late 2000’s in Africa. Wisepill, a South African smart pill box manufacturing company established in 2007, is one of the earliest African health tech success stories. The company developed smart storage containers that alert users on their mobile devices when they forget to take their medication. The product is widely used in South Africa and Uganda.

The industry gained momentum during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the emergence of several health tech companies offering remote health services. The market experienced about 300% increase in demand for remote healthcare services such as telemedicine, health monitoring, and medicine distribution.

According to WHO, the COVID pandemic resulted in the development of over 120 health tech innovations in Africa. Some of the health tech start-ups that emerged during the pandemic include Zuri Health (Kenya), Waspito (Cameroon), and Ilara Health (Kenya). Several established companies also developed specific solutions to tackle the spread of COVID-19 and increase their user base. For instance, Redbird, a Ghanaian health monitoring company founded in 2018, gained user attention by launching a COVID-19 symptom tracker during the pandemic. The company continues to provide remote health monitoring services for other ailments, such as diabetes and hypertension, which require regular health check-ups. Patients can visit the nearest pharmacy instead of a far-away hospital to conduct tests, and results will be regularly updated on their platform to track changes.

Scarcity Breeds Innovation – The Rising Adoption of Health Tech in Africa by EOS Intelligence

Start-ups offering advanced solutions based on AI and IoT have been also emerging successfully in recent years. For instance, Ilara Health, a Kenya-based company, founded during the COVID-19 pandemic, is providing affordable diagnostic services to rural population using AI-powered diagnostic devices.

With growing internet penetration (40% across Africa as of 2022) and a rise in investments, tech entrepreneurs are now able to develop solutions and expand their reach. For instance, mPharma, a Ghana-based pharmacy stock management company founded in 2013, is improving medicine supply by making prescription drugs easily accessible and affordable across nine countries in Africa. The company raised a US$35 million investment in January 2022 and is building a network of pharmacies and virtual clinics across the continent.

Currently, 42 out of 54 African countries have national eHealth strategies to support digital health initiatives. However, the maximum number of health tech companies are concentrated in countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya, which have the highest per capita pharma spending in the continent. Nigeria and South Africa jointly account for 46% of health tech start-ups in Africa. Telemedicine is the most offered service by start-ups founded in the past five years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the most popular telemedicine start-ups include Babylon Health (Rwanda), Vezeeta (Egypt), DRO Health (Nigeria), and Zuri Health (Kenya).

Other most offered services include medicine distribution, hospital/pharmacy management, and online booking and appointments. Medicine distribution start-ups have an immense impact on minimizing the prevalence of counterfeit medication by offering tech-enabled alternatives to sourcing medication from open drug markets. Many physical retail pharmacy chains, such as Goodlife Pharmacy (Kenya), HealthPlus (Nigeria), and MedPlus (Nigeria), are launching online pharmacy operations leveraging their established logistics infrastructure. Hospitals are increasingly adopting automation tools to streamline their operations. Electronic Medical Record (EMR) management tools offered by Helium Health, a provider of hospital automation tools based in Nigeria are widely adopted in six African countries.

Medicine distribution start-ups have an immense impact on minimizing the prevalence of counterfeit medication by offering tech-enabled alternatives to sourcing medication from open drug markets.

For any start-up in Africa, the key to success is to provide scalable, affordable, and accessible digital health solutions. Low-cost subscription plans offered by Mobihealth (a UK-based telehealth company founded in 2018) and Cardo Health (a Sweden-based telehealth company founded in 2021) are at least 50% more affordable than the average doctor consultation fee of US$25 in Africa. Telemedicine platforms such as Reliance HMO (Nigeria) and Rocket Health (Uganda) offer affordable health insurance that covers all medical expenses. Some governments have also taken initiatives in partnering with health tech companies to provide affordable healthcare to their people. For instance, the Rwandan government partnered with a digital health platform called Babylon Health in 2018 to deliver low-cost healthcare to the population of Rwanda. Babylon Health is able to reach the majority of the population through simple SMS codes.

Government support and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)

With a mission to have a digital-first universal primary care (a nationwide program that provides primary care through digital tools), the Rwandan government is setting an example by collaborating with Babylon Health, a telemedicine service that offers online consultations, appointments, and treatments.

As part of nationwide digitization efforts, the government has established broadband infrastructure that reaches 90% population of the country. Apart from this, the country has a robust health insurance named Mutuelle de Santé, which reaches more than 90% of the population. In December 2022, the government of Ghana launched a nationwide e-pharmacy platform to regulate and support digital pharmacies. Similarly, in Uganda, the government implemented a national e-health policy that recognizes the potential of technology in the healthcare sector.

MomConnect, a mobile initiative launched by the South African government with the support of Johnson and Johnson in 2014 for educating expectant and new mothers, is another example of a successful PPP. However, apart from a few countries in the region, there are not enough initiatives undertaken by the governments to improve health systems.

Private and foreign investments

In 2021, health tech start-ups in Africa raised US$392 million. The sustainability of investments became a concern when the investments dropped to US$189 million in 2022 amid the global decline in start-up funding.

However, experts predict that the investment flow will improve in 2023. Recently, in March 2023, South African e-health startup Envisionit Deep AI raised US$1.65 million from New GX Ventures SA, a South African-based venture capital company. Nigerian e-health company, Famasi, is also amongst the start-ups that raised investments during the first quarter of 2023. The company offers doorstep delivery of medicines and flexible payment plans for medicine bills.

The companies that have raised investments in recent years offer mostly telemedicine and distribution services and are based in South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya. That being said, start-ups in the space of wearable devices, AI, and IoT are also gaining the attention of investors. Vitls, a South African-based wearable device developer, raised US$1.3 million in funding in November 2022.

Africa-based incubators and accelerators, such as Villgro, The Baobab Network, and GrowthAfrica Accelerator, are also supporting e-health start-ups with funding and technical guidance. Villgro has launched a US$30 million fund for health tech start-ups in March 2023. Google has also committed US$4 million to fund health tech start-ups in Africa in 2023.

Digital future for healthcare in Africa

There were over 1,700 health tech start-ups in Africa as of January 2023, compared with about 1,200 start-ups in 2020. The rapid emergence of health tech companies is addressing long-running challenges of health systems and are offering tailored solutions to meet the specific needs of the African market.

Mobile penetration is higher than internet penetration, and health tech companies are encouraged to use SMS messaging to promote healthcare access. However, Africa is expected to have at least 65% internet penetration by 2025. With growing awareness of the benefits of health tech solutions, tech companies would be able to address new markets, especially in rural areas.

Companies that offer new technologies such as AI chatbots, drones, wearable devices for remote patient monitoring, hospital automation systems, e-learning platforms for health workers, the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), and predictive analytics are expected to gain more attention in the coming years. Digitally enabled, locally-led innovations will have a huge impact on tackling the availability, affordability, and quality of health products and services.

Digitally enabled, locally-led innovations will have a huge impact on tackling the availability, affordability, and quality of health products and services.

Challenges faced by the health tech sector  

While the African health tech industry has significantly evolved over the last few years, there are still significant challenges with regard to infrastructure, computer literacy, costs, and adaptability.

For instance, in Africa, only private hospitals have switched to digital records. Many hospitals still operate without computer systems or internet connections. About 40% of the population are internet users, with countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Ghana, Kenya, and Algeria being the ones with the highest number of internet users (60-80% of the population). However, 23 countries in Africa still have low internet penetration (less than 25%). This is the major reason why tech companies concentrate in the continent’s largest tech hubs.

On the other hand, the majority of the rural population prefers face-to-face contact due to the lack of digital literacy. Electricity and internet connectivity are yet to reach all parts of the region and the cost of the internet is a burden for many people. Low-spending power is a challenge, as people refuse to undergo medical treatment due to a lack of insurance schemes to cover their medical expenses. Insurance schemes provided in Africa only cover 60% of their healthcare expenses. Even though health tech solutions bring medical costs down, these services still remain unaffordable for people in low-income countries. Therefore, start-ups do not prefer to establish or expand their services in such regions.

Another hurdle tech companies face is the diversity of languages in Africa. Africa is home to one-third of the world’s languages and has over 1,000 languages. This makes it difficult for companies to customize content to reach all populations.

Amidst all these challenges, there is very little support from the governments. The companies face unfavorable policies and regulations that hinder the implementation of digital solutions. Only 8% of African countries have online pharmacy regulations. In Nigeria, regulatory guidelines for online pharmacies only came into effect in January 2022, and there are still unresolved concerns around its implementation.

Lack of public investment and comprehensive government support also discourage the local players. Public initiatives are rare in providing funding, research support, and regulatory approval for technology innovations in the health sector. Private investment flow is low for start-ups in this sector compared to other industries. Health tech start-ups raised a total investment of US$189 million in 2022, which is not even 10% of the total investments raised by start-ups in other sectors in Africa. Also, funding is favored towards the ones established in high-income countries. Founders who don’t have ties to high-income countries struggle to raise funds.

EOS Perspective

The emergence of tech health can be referred to as a necessary rise to deal with perennial gaps in the African healthcare system. Undoubtedly, many of these successful companies could transform the health sector, making quality health services available to the mass population. The pandemic has spurred the adoption of digital health, and the trend experienced during the pandemic continues to grow with the developments in the use of advanced technologies such as AI and IoT. Telemedicine and distribution have been the fastest-growing sectors driven by the demand for remote healthcare services during the pandemic. Home-based care is likely to keep gaining momentum with the development of advanced solutions for remote health monitoring and diagnostic services.

Home-based care is likely to keep gaining momentum with the development of advanced solutions for remote health monitoring and diagnostic services.

With the increasing internet penetration and acceptance of digital healthcare, health tech companies are likely to be able to expand their reach to rural areas. Right policies, PPPs, and infrastructure development are expected to catalyze the health tech adoption in Africa. Companies that offer advanced technologies such as IoT-enabled integrated medical devices, AI chatbots, drones, wearable devices for remote patient monitoring, hospital automation systems, e-learning platforms for health workers, and predictive analytics for health monitoring are expected to emerge successfully in the coming years.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Indian Pharma Needs to Reinforce Supply Chain Capabilities

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COVID-19 has emphasized the importance of a strong healthcare and pharmaceutical ecosystem for India. The constant demand for drugs and the expectation to deliver them in time put a lot of pressure on pharma supply chains, highlighting several challenges and shortcomings. At the same time, the Indian pharma sector seems to have benefited from the situation as well, as the pandemic unlocked new avenues of growth. To seize new opportunities, the Indian pharma sector should now focus on increasing manufacturing capacity, investing in R&D capabilities, developing world-class infrastructure, and strengthening its supply chain network.

Challenging times for the Indian pharma sector

With the coronavirus wreaking havoc, the Indian pharmaceutical sector was shaken, and the pandemic inflicted several challenges on the industry.

The key challenge faced by pharmaceutical companies has been the shortage of key raw materials for manufacturing drugs. India imports 60% of APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) and DIs (Drug Intermediates), and nearly 70% of this demand is met by Chinese companies (as of July 2020). This reliance on importing cheaper raw materials from countries such as China is a result of a lack of tax incentives, the high cost of utilities, and low import duties in India.

India’s dependence on China has affected the supply of essential APIs. The recent pandemic has magnified this problem, and in order to meet the increasing demand, Indian pharma manufacturers need to strengthen their supply chain strategies by working with multiple API suppliers, both domestic as well as international.

Another concern has been the increased raw materials and logistics costs. Between January and June 2020, the production costs at the Chinese suppliers increased due to the implementation of safety and hygiene measures thus increasing the overall cost of APIs and other materials imported by India by an average of 25%. Logistics prices also went up during the same period, with the cost of shipping a container from China to India increasing to an average of US$ 1,250, up from US$ 750. Additionally, air freight charges also went up from US$ 2/kg to US$ 5-6/kg.

Furthermore, restrictions on movement of products and other goods also posed a problem for pharma supply chain. Even though the sector was exempted from these restrictions, delays in the delivery of drugs were registered. These delays have been largely contributed to by the complexity of various processes and their elements (from raw material procurement to procuring casing and other packaging material – all of which come from different locations to the final assembly point, and their delivery can be exposed to delays at each stage). While logistics companies tried to make product deliveries on time, they were restrained by limited workforce and movement restrictions (that required clearance at every step).

Moreover, due to panic buying, scarcity of OTC and generic drugs was also observed.

Government’s push to make India self-reliant

The government has undertaken steps to strengthen the pharma sector and announced several schemes and policies to boost domestic pharma manufacturing.

To reduce import dependence on APIs and boost domestic manufacturing, the government approved a US$ 971.6 million (INR 69.4 billion) Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme in March 2020 to promote domestic manufacturing of APIs and KSMs (Key Starting Materials)/DIs. Under the scheme, financial incentives ranging from 5% to 20% of incremental sales will be given to selected manufacturers of 41 critical bulk drugs (of the identified 53 APIs for which the country is heavily dependent on imports). This includes aid for fermentation-based products from FY2023–2024 to FY2028–2029 and for chemical-synthesis-based products from FY2022–2023 to FY2027–2028. It is expected that the scheme will result in incremental sales of US$ 649.6 million (INR 464 billion) and generate a large number of employment opportunities.

Moreover, in November 2020, a new PLI Scheme (referred to as PLI 2.0) for the promotion of domestic manufacturing of pharmaceutical products was announced, wherein US$ 210 million (INR 150 billion) were allotted for pharma goods manufacturers based on their Global Manufacturing Revenue (GMR). Financial incentives ranging from 3% to 10% of incremental sales will be given to manufacturers (classified under Group A – having GMR of pharmaceutical goods of at least US$ 700 million (INR 50 billion), Group B – having GMR between US$ 70 million (INR 5 billion) and US$ 700 million (INR 50 billion), and Group C – having GMR less than US$ 70 million (INR 5 billion). The objective of the scheme is to promote production of high-value products, increase the value addition in exports, and improve the availability of a wider range of affordable medicines for local consumers. The initiative is likely to create 100,000 (20,000 direct and 80,000 indirect) jobs while generating total incremental sales of US$ 41,160 million (INR 2,940 billion) and total incremental exports of US$ 27,440 million (INR 1,960 billion) during six years from FY2022-2023 to FY2027-2028.

Another scheme, named Promotion of Bulk Drug Parks, was announced by the government in March 2020 to attain self-reliance. Under the plan, funds worth US$ 420 million (INR 30 billion) were allotted for setting up three bulk drug parks between 2020 and 2025. This initiative aims at reducing the manufacturing cost as well as the dependency on importing bulk drugs from other countries. Financial assistance will be given to selected bulk drug parks to the extent of 70% of the project cost of common infrastructure facilities (for north-eastern regions and states in the mountainous areas, the assistance will be 90%). The aid per bulk Drug Park will be limited to US$ 140 million (INR 10 billion).

Furthermore, to end reliance on China, Indian pharma companies are also taking steps to strengthen their operations and manufacturing capabilities with regard to pharmaceutical ingredients. For instance, Cipla Ltd. (Mumbai-based pharmaceutical company) launched the “API re-imagination” program in 2020 to expand its manufacturing capacity by using government incentive schemes.

The announcement of the above schemes is a show of intent by the government towards building a self-sufficient pharma sector in India. It will be interesting to see how much pharma players stand to gain from these potentially game-changing initiatives. However, only time will tell if these policies are good enough for the industry stakeholders or will these schemes not be plentiful enough to truly help the manufacturers.

Indian Pharma Needs to Reinforce Supply Chain Capabilities by EOS Intelligence

Investment in API and intermediaries’ sub-sectors on the rise

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Indian pharmaceutical companies (that deal particularly with the manufacturing of APIs, vaccine-related products, and bulk pharma chemicals) have been attracting huge investment from private equity firms. This is happening mainly because of two reasons. Firstly, the occurrence of the second wave of COVID-19 in India has increased the demand for medicines (including demand for self-care, nutritional, and preventive pharma products to boost immunity), and secondly, pharma companies across North America and Europe are shifting their manufacturing sites from China to India (to reduce dependency on a single source). Indian companies received an investment worth US$ 1.5 billion from private equity firms during FY2020-2021 (since the coronavirus outbreak), and the investment is expected to reach US$ 3-4 billion in FY2021-2022.

Some of the major deals that happened in this space included Carlyle Group (US-based private equity firm) buying a 20% stake in Piramal Pharma (Mumbai-based pharma company) for US$ 490 million in June 2020 and a 74% stake in SeQuent Scientific (India-based pharmaceutical company) for US$ 210 million in May 2020. Further, KKR & Co. (US-based global investment company) purchased a 54% controlling stake in J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (Mumbai-based pharmaceutical company) for nearly US$ 410 million in July 2020. Another example is Advent International (US-based private equity firm) acquiring stakes in RA Chem Pharma (Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company) for US$ 128 million in July 2020.

From a capital perspective, COVID-19 acted as an investment accelerant that will keep the market open for opportunistic deals for many years to come. In the current scenario, investment firms are re-evaluating the pharma landscape and looking to invest in innovative ideas and products that help them grow. It is highly likely that in the coming months if the right opportunity strikes, the investment firms will not be deterred from going ahead with novel deal structures. This could include arrangements such as both parties sharing equal risk and rewards, a for-profit partnership wherein the investor specifically focuses on enhancing the digital-marketing capabilities of the pharma company (rather than sticking to just acquiring a certain share or merging with an existing company) and being open to taking more risk if needed.

Partnerships expected to increase

The pandemic has led pharma companies to rethink their operational and business strategies. For long-term sustainability, players analyze their market position, partnering with other industry stakeholders for better market penetration and value creation for their customers.

In November 2020, Indian Immunologicals Ltd. (Hyderabad-based vaccine company) announced that the company would invest US$ 10.5 million (INR 0.75 billion) in a new viral antigen manufacturing plant based in Telangana that would cater to the need for vaccines for diseases such as dengue, zika, varicella, and COVID-19 (in April 2021, the company announced a research collaboration agreement with the Griffith University, Australia to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus).

Furthermore, Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd. (Noida-based pharma company) entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Gilead Sciences (a US-based biopharmaceutical company), granting it the right to register, manufacture, and sell Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences’ drug currently used as a potential therapy for COVID-19) in India (along with other 126 countries).

In February 2021, to scale up the biopharma ecosystem, the state government of Telangana partnered with Cytiva (earlier GE Healthcare Life Sciences) to open a new Fast Trak lab in Hyderabad. This facility will enable the biopharma companies in the region to improve and increase production efficiency, reduce operational costs, and make products available in the market quicker.

Future ripe for new opportunities

The pandemic has opened a stream of opportunities for India’s pharma sector which are expected to drive the growth of the sector in the long term.

China’s supply disruption and increased raw material costs have forced global pharma companies to reduce dependence on China. As an alternative, the companies either set up new API manufacturing plants (which is time-consuming) or turn to existing European or US drug manufacturers to help them meet their requirements. However, both options are capitally draining, and there is a need to find a cost-efficient solution. This presents a huge opportunity for the Indian API sector, which is also a key earnings growth driver for pharma manufacturers.

India is among the leading global producers of cost-effective generic medicines. Now, there is a need to diversify the product offerings by focusing on complex generics and biosimilars. With the guidance of the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) in identifying the most appropriate methodology for developing complex generic drugs, Indian pharma companies such as Dr. Reddy’s, Zydus, Glenmark, Aurobindo, Torrent, Lupin, Cipla, Sun, and Cadila are working on their product pipeline of complex generics. Currently, the space has limited competition and offers higher margins (in comparison to generic drugs), thus presenting a lucrative opportunity for Indian players to explore and grow.

Similarly, biosimilars (referred to as similar biologics in India) are another area where Indian companies have not been faring too well in international markets, mainly due to the non-alignment of Indian regulatory guidelines with the guidelines in other markets (mainly in Europe and the USA). The government had already revised the guidelines of similar biologics (done in 2016, which provided an efficient regulatory pathway for manufacturing processes assuring safety and efficacy with quality as per cGMP (Current Good Manufacturing Practice regulations enforced by the FDA)) and introduced industry-institute initiatives (such as ‘National Bio-Pharma Mission’, launched in 2017 to accelerate biopharmaceutical development, including biosimilars, among others) to improve the situation. But now, with the intensified need for improved healthcare systems and more effective medicines, COVID-19 has presented Indian companies with an opportunity to shape their biosimilar landscape.

India holds a strong position as a key destination for outsourcing research activities. While it has been a preferred location for global pharma companies to set up R&D plants for a number of years now, becoming an outsourcing hub for pharma research is another growth area that is yet to be explored to its full potential.

EOS Perspective

Currently, the Indian pharma industry is at an interesting crossroads wherein the industry responded to the unprecedented situation with agility and persistence. The pandemic presented several opportunities and challenges for the industry and unsurprisingly, had a positive impact on the sector. The pandemic acted as a catalyst for change and investment for the pharma sector, which also responded to the challenges by adjusting to the new normal that furthered new opportunities.

In the past few months, COVID-19 has led the government to reassess the country’s pharmaceutical manufacturing capabilities and led them to take steps to make India self-sufficient. As an immediate measure, the country has been reviewing its business policies (for the ease of doing business and to attract more investment) and pharma companies recalibrating their business models, and some success has been achieved. The government should also be mindful that, in the long run, success will only be achieved when industry stakeholders are presented with a business environment (in the form of incentives, tax subsidies, low rates of interest on bank loans, utilities such as electricity and water at discounted rates, and transparent business policies, etc.) that is conducive for growth.

Moving forward, the Indian pharma companies need to be adaptive and flexible. While the sector has been resilient to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, companies need to focus on risk management as well. Moreover, with continuous capital flowing into the sector, there is an opportunity for firms to not just broaden their scope of innovation but also to invest in critical therapeutic areas.

To emerge as a winner post-pandemic, the Indian pharma industry needs to focus on its strengths and propel full steam in the direction of opportunities presented by COVID-19.

*All currency conversions as on 20th May, 2021, 1 INR = 0.014 US$

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

The Smoke around Legal Cannabis

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Till date, 31 countries and 41 states in the USA either legalized cannabis in various forms, including making it legal for medical or recreational use, or decriminalized it while still maintaining its illegal status. Few countries are preparing to legalize or decriminalize the use of marijuana for all purposes while many countries are still debating over the legalization of this plant only for medical and not for recreational use. With the rise in education about cannabis and its benefits for humans, economies, and culture, chances of positive changes in laws around cannabis are growing across the world. As legalizing cannabis is still a topic of debate with variety of business, political, and cultural views involved, we are looking at how the legalization of cannabis might impact the economy and businesses in the countries taking the step towards less restrictive approach to handling the issue.

Cannabis – a controversial medicinal plant

Cannabis or marijuana plant and its alleged benefits and risks for human body have been a difficult topic of debate amongst law makers, medical professionals, researchers, economists, politicians, and (of course) cannabis users. In many parts of the world, it still has negative connotations with a narcotic drug, due to presence of psychoactive substance tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) which brings an intoxicating effect to human mind.

In many countries, cannabis has been treated similarly to other chemical drugs, such as cocaine, heroin, etc., in terms of its legal status, by banning from legal cultivation, purchase, or selling for any purpose. However, there has been a continuous development in spreading awareness by the medical professionals, researchers, and scientists on the benefits of using cannabis for medical purposes. This has been followed by voices being raised on people’s right to legalized cannabis also for recreational purposes, comparing it with alcohol and tobacco, which are claimed to have far worse impact on human health, yet are enjoying legal status in many countries.

In addition to this, many economists too are coming forward in favor of legalizing cannabis to bring a boost to economies. As a result of such strong petitions, more and more countries are considering legalization of cannabis and the future might see countries such as USA (including all 50 states), Mexico, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Columbia, France, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Jamaica, and Portugal legalizing the plant for all purposes, along with legalization of personal cultivation of cannabis with an aim of bringing cure or relief to several diseases, helping to control healthcare costs, curbing illegal drug businesses, and stimulating country’s economy through adding another taxable business activity.

The Smoke around Legal Cannabis

Countries signal green light for marijuana

The league of countries with full legalization of cannabis for all purposes is still a small, two-member club, which was most recently entered by Canada (in October 2018) with more than 100 legal cannabis retail stores running across the country. After Uruguay that started this league in December 2013, Canada is the second country in the world to completely legalize cannabis, and it does not seem that the club will expand any time soon.

The USA are considering to gradually legalize cannabis for recreational use along with medical use. As of November 2018, The District of Columbia and 10 states including Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. An addition of 30 states along with US territories of Puerto Rico and Guam allow the use of cannabis only for medical purposes.

Amongst the European countries, none of them has legalized smoking cannabis or using it for recreational purposes yet, but there are several countries which have legalized the medical use of cannabis under a treatment process, while also decriminalizing the use of cannabis for recreational purposes. Malta, Greece, Luxemburg, and Denmark are amongst the European countries that legalized medical cannabis in 2018 adding to the group of other European countries such as Italy, Norway, Poland, The Netherlands, France, Spain, Slovenia, to name a few.

Some Asian countries are also moving towards legalizing cannabis but exclusively for medical purposes and that too with strict policies. Recently, in November 2018, Thailand legalized medical marijuana, but with very stringent rules to get access to marijuana plants. Also, in November 2018, South Korea became the second Asian country to legalize medical cannabis, while Malaysia is expected to be the third nation to fall into this group. Interestingly though, India, known to be the origin of cannabis sativa plant, has not legalized the use of cannabis for any purpose yet, although the country runs a huge illegal trade of marijuana as well as hashish (a drug made of cannabis resin). There are many petitions already submitted by various Indian economists and politicians in favor of legalizing cannabis for use in cancer patients and even hemp cultivation for horticulture use, but due to changing political environment in India, the petitions are still pending to be considered by the relevant law-making bodies.

Cannabis business – boom in economies

According to a report published in 2018 by Brightfield Group, with the on-going trend of countries moving towards legalizing cannabis, the global legal cannabis market is expected to reach US$ 31.4 billion by the end of 2021, owing to the growing adoption of medical cannabis in treatment or relief in a range of diseases and ailments, such as cancer, mental disorders, chronic pains, and others.

Apart from medical applications, the recreational use of cannabis too has led to a continuous rise in sales of cannabis for direct and indirect use, thus giving a push to retail businesses as well as tourism sector in countries that moved towards legalization. As a result of the rise in sales, governments of these countries and states have registered increased tax revenues and a boost to local economies. For instance, California that legalized cannabis for recreational use in January 2018, generated US$74.2 million of tax revenue during second quarter, with a rise of 22% over the first quarter. In another, more hypothetical example, according to a report by Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, Canada could generate US$463.74 million in tax revenue by 2021 if the projections of nearly 734 metric tons of legal cannabis to be consumed by that year are correct.

Similarly, according to a study by New Frontier Data, if cannabis was legalized in all American states, it would generate a combined US$131.8 billion in federal tax revenue between 2017 and 2025, considering 15% retail sales tax, payroll deductions, and business tax revenue. In fact, according to a research study by Ameri Research Inc. in 2017, in the USA, tax revenues from legal cannabis are now comparable with revenues from other products, such as draft beer and e-cigarettes, a fact highlighting the recent growth of sales in legal cannabis market in the USA.

Apart from tax revenue generation, creating new business opportunities is also one of the reasons for countries to seriously consider legalization of cannabis. States such as Colorado, for example, have registered some 431,997 new business entities between 2014 and 2017. In 2017, it also experienced a 17.7% rise in employment over 2016 with 17,281 full-time equivalent jobs. Also, in 2017, across the USA, there were 9,397 active licenses with slightly more than 3,000 licenses active in Colorado. These licenses were made active for cannabis businesses dealing with cultivation, manufacturing, retailing, distributing, delivering, and even lab testing that generated 121,000 jobs in 2017 across the District of Columbia plus 10 US states. This number is expected to reach 1.1 million jobs by 2025, if cannabis is legalized in all 50 states, across all ends of cannabis industry supply chain, from farmers to transporters to sellers.

It is expected that through legalization of cannabis, several countries, especially Mexico, USA, and Canada, are also expected to witness significant drop in illicit activities related to drugs industry. According to a study by Deloitte in 2018, cannabis users in Canada are willing and in fact looking forward to pay more for legal purchase of cannabis grown and processed under federal laws and sold through legal channels rather than going for illegal drug purchase options. This goes hand in hand with Canadian government’s hopes to crack down on illegal drug trade while also finding new sources of stimulation to the country’s economy.

Impact of legal cannabis market on other business sectors

The emergence of legal cannabis market has raised many business opportunities in various sectors such as retail, food and beverages, real estate, and even tobacco and alcohol industry.

Amongst these sectors, real estate has been developing strongly in many countries allowing for legal cannabis for medical as well as recreational use. Properties and facilities that are well-suited for cannabis-related operations are experiencing rise in industrial rents and sales price premiums owing to the rise in demand for warehouses, industrial and storage facilities, agricultural, and other properties.

In Canada, legalization of growing and sales of recreational cannabis has fueled a six-fold surge in plant-growing facilities to 8.7 million square feet in 2018 according to data from Altus Group, Canadian real estate company. Aurora Cannabis, one of Canada’s leading cannabis companies, has already started its project for cultivation of cannabis in a new 8 million square feet facility in 2018. Canopy Growth, market leader in cannabis industry of Canada, has announced plans in October 2018 to develop 3 million square feet of greenhouse space in British Columbia through October 2019, which will be more than double its production surface as of 2018. With the legalization of cannabis, the demand is also rising for commercial real estate thus giving an opportunity for struggling retailers to make a move into a new market. Alberta, where cannabis industry is fully private, has experienced a sharp surge in demand for 1,200 to 3,000 square feet retail real estate to set up cannabis shops and dispensaries in malls and street-front locations.

Similarly, within the USA, Colorado, experienced a rise in real estate sector through increase in housing values by about 6% owing to increasing development in retail sector through legal cannabis pharmacies, dispensaries, cafés, and retail shops. Going beyond real estate, the retail industry is also likely to receive a push thanks to opportunities in auxiliary businesses such as accessory shops, cannabis cafés, weed gardening products stores, bakeries, and candy shops, contributing to rising demand for retail locations.

The impact of cannabis legalization is visible also in food and beverage industry thanks to new products such as cannabis-infused edibles such as cakes, candies, and drinks. In 2017, California reported sales of US$180 million of edibles, whereas Colorado has seen about a 60% rise in edibles sales volume (with 11.1 million edibles unites been sold in the same year). The future of food and beverage industry with cannabis-infused edibles is projected to be promising due to the benefits of cannabis plant for using it in food products. According to a food and beverage industry expert, Sylvian Charlebois, cannabis offers good nutrients (proteins, vitamin E and C, to name a few), hence for food products manufacturers looking for new avenues of growth, cannabis could be deemed the next ‘superfood’.

On the other hand, the legalization of cannabis has affected alcohol industry due to the emerging inclination of people towards choosing the “green high” over alcoholic drinks.

According to a study by Deloitte in 2018, in Canada, cannabis is likely to be increasingly perceived as a substitute to beer, spirits, and wine which could negatively impact the alcoholic beverages-related revenues for governments, liquor companies, and retailers. This is already observed in the USA, where a joint recent research study of 10 years conducted by two US-based universities, namely University of Connecticut, Storrs and Georgia University, Atlanta in cooperation with Universidad del Pacifico in Peru, has suggested that the counties located in medical marijuana states showed almost a 15% decline in monthly alcohol sales between 2006 and 2015.

At the same time, some industry experts believe that since it is part of American and European food culture to drink alcoholic drinks such as beer and wine with food, the legalization of cannabis is not going to affect the demand for such food-complementing alcoholic drinks. In fact, cannabis legalization is also coming out to be a stepping stone for large alcohol brands to enter the cannabis industry with cannabis-infused alcoholic beverages, mostly through mergers and acquisitions with leading cannabis growing companies. In August 2018, New-York based Constellation Brands acquired more that 50% stake of Ontario-based Canopy Growth for US$4.0 billion, the largest investment registered in cannabis industry so far. The received investment is believed to help Canopy Growth strengthen and expand its leadership position in Canada and other countries with legalized cannabis. It is expected that in the future, other alcohol industry leaders will also consider getting involved in cannabis industry in order to expand through cannabis-infused drinks, creating a new segment of products with combination of alcohol and cannabis.

EOS Perspective

The benefits of cannabis on human body in diseases such as cancer, acute and chronic pains, or neurological and mental illness, have resulted in a growing count of countries legalizing use of cannabis. On the other hand, the legalizing of cannabis for recreational purpose is still receiving mixed views by industry experts and public opinions in several countries. The only way to make this experiment work, is to follow the steps of those countries that have legalized recreational cannabis and are simultaneously focusing on implementing a completely regulated system to scrutinize the whole supply chain in order to curb illegal drug activities and over-dose of cannabis by the users.

For this purpose, the leaders – Uruguay and Canada – have created systems of registration cards with a specific limit to purchase a quantity of cannabis for recreational use per month. As a result of this, the situation is expected to be under control and authorities believe that this will help in curbing illegal trade activities while keeping check on personal consumption of cannabis.

It is also recommended to consider the fact that legalization of cannabis for recreational and medical purposes is likely to reduce the use of other, more harmful and addictive drugs, as well as curb (at least to some extent) the over-consumption of alcohol that is associated with serious health hazards and many deaths, generating huge social burden and healthcare costs in many countries.

Considering all these factors, the success of legalizing cannabis for all purposes in any country depends on how the processes across cultivation, distribution, retail, all the way to the end buyer is regulated and scrutinized by the law makers and law enforcers of the country. There surely are both pros and cons of legalizing cannabis but with solid work towards improved awareness, and, more importantly, a regulated system with proper (enforced) laws, it can give the countries a boost to their economies along with rise in employment, better medical treatments, and decline in illegal drug activities.

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Infographic: Understanding the Cost Dynamics of 3D Printed Drugs

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Medical industry needs no introduction to 3D printing technology, which has found usage in applications varying from custom prosthetics to surgical procedures. And with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approving the sale of Spritam (in 2016 across USA), a drug used in preventing seizures, produced by Aprecia Pharmaceuticals using 3D printing, this commercial use of 3D printing technology embodies a momentous development in the field of printing drugs. The deployment of this technology offers certain benefits, but also comes at a cost, and affects the cost dynamics of producing a drug.

Cost savings offered by 3D printing technology are massive. Making drugs using printers will gradually reduce the processing equipment required, allowing the final product to be printed on one versatile machine, saving thousands of dollars. Going a step ahead, pharma companies will provide the base products for printing of the medicines at clinics and pharmacies, which means that the investment in production and storage facilities at the pharma company’s end will decline as the physical making of the drug will be shifted closer to the end-user. The technology will also help save on packaging and labelling costs along with bringing down logistics expenses.

However, as 3D printing capabilities develop further and as the cost of printing drugs falls, increasing easy accessibility to these drugs, it will become imperative to address safety and regulatory concerns associated with this technology.

While making drugs with 3D printing technology could be a game changer for the medical industry, it also comes with a potential threat of counterfeit and illegal drugs. As drugs production will be shifted from centralized location of pharma companies, which are able to ensure more controlled and supervised production processes, drugs will be printed at numerous clinics and pharmacies, and hence strict regulations need to be adopted and methods of production need to be appropriately controlled. Unified safety procedures and quality control measures need to be developed so that patients can be assured of the quality of the products.

The immense potential offered by this technology is increasingly materializing through commercialization in developed markets. However, as massive financial inputs from pharma companies paired with research grants and support by governments are still required, it is fair to believe that this technology is still far out from the reach of the less developed parts of the world, at least in the foreseeable future.

3D printed drugs

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

FDI Regulations in Indian Pharmaceutical Sector: A Game-changer?

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Spoon full of pills and a capsule with the flagdesign of India.(

In June 2016, the Indian government liberalized its FDI policy in the pharmaceuticals sector by allowing 74% FDI under automatic route in brownfield pharmaceutical investments (investment in an existing plant). Earlier, even though 100% FDI was allowed in the brownfield projects, government approval was mandatory for investments beyond 49% stake. In greenfield pharmaceutical investments, the existing FDI policy allows 100% FDI under the automatic route. The recent changes effectively introduce a new regime, under which a foreign company is now allowed to hold a majority stake in an Indian pharmaceutical company without government approval in either brownfield or greenfield projects.

This has been done with a view to boost the development of the Indian pharmaceutical sector. The move is likely to increase the number of investments in the sector along with a decrease in investment timelines leading to a greater inflow of capital in a short span of time. In addition, the policy is likely to result in Indian pharmaceutical companies exporting products to the USA and EU, encouraging the sharing of technologies and overseas investment. An increase in the inflow of funds will also lead to the promotion of R&D activities in the country.

That being said, the liberalization of the FDI regulations has also a potential to threaten competition in the Indian pharmaceutical sector, as seen previously with Ranbaxy. In 2008, Daiichi Sankyo, a Japan-based company acquired a majority stake (including brands, R&D facilities, and production units) in Ranbaxy, a leading Indian generic manufacturer, for US$ 4.6 billion. However, the investment proved unfruitful as post the acquisition, Daiichi faced several regulatory hurdles with the US Food and Drug Administration regarding drug testing authenticity and manufacturing criteria. In addition, four of Ranbaxy’s plants were banned from selling medicines in the USA and Daiichi was made to pay US$ 500 million to the US Justice Department in order to settle the lawsuit. In 2014, Ranbaxy was acquired by India-based Sun Pharma with Daiichi as the controlling shareholder before Daiichi sold its entire stake in Sun Pharma for US$ 3.18 billion in 2015. Once a renowned brand, Ranbaxy has now lost its independent status and exists only as a shadow of Sun Pharma.

Thus, the new FDI regime could easily lead to the sale of several Indian generic pharma companies to pharmaceutical players intending to enter the Indian pharma market, which is considered a generic pharmaceuticals hub with market size estimated at US$ 20 billion as of June 2016. The policy could lead to foreign players grabbing market share and exercising greater control to sway the government to alter the IP regime. This could lead to India losing its independent industry providing low cost essential medicines.

However, things could also take an entirely different turn. Large, well-established Indian pharmaceutical companies might not be looking to receive new investments, which could lead to the acquisition of small and medium-sized Indian pharmaceutical companies by foreign players. This move could lead to the inflow of capital in these small companies, promotion of R&D activities, increased manufacturing of medicines, and higher exports.

While the impact of the FDI regulations change will be seen in the next couple of years, the government has already taken an arduous task of maintaining a balance between foreign investment-friendly regime and guarding the local generic medicines laws while protecting local players from large foreign companies.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Government Trumps Pfizer Deal

Termination of business contract or partnership

Since its announcement last year, a US$160 billion Pfizer-Allergan merger has been under an ongoing discussion, with great synergies and tax savings expected if the deal was to be finalized, (we wrote about it in our ‘Pfizer-Allergan Deal – What’s in Store for Allergan’ article in February 2016).

However, discussions came to an abrupt end, when the merger was called off on April 6th, 2016 in the wake of changes in tax rules by the US government to check inversions. New rules disregard last three years’ (at the time of deal) acquisitions by a foreign company in the USA in determining its market value. It is a general feeling that the three-year rule was introduced primarily to stop Pfizer-Allergan deal. Since its announcement, the deal was a talking point in political debates with some presidential hopefuls taking an open stance against it.

To secure maximum tax benefits of inversion deal, Pfizer shareholders were required to own 50-60% of the merged entity. Allergan’s market capitalization stood at US$120 billion (against Pfizer’s US$200), owing to three deals, i.e. Allergan-Actavis merger (US$66 billion), Forest Laboratories acquisition (US$25 billion) and Warner Chilcott purchase (US$5 billion), struck in last three years, thereby giving Pfizer shareholders more than 50% of the combined entity. However, this will not be the case now due to drastic reduction in Allergan’s market value as a result of three-year window provision. This also means that both the companies will have to go back to the drawing board.

For Pfizer, this means the need for an increased focus on management of its vast portfolio of drugs (a mix of patent and off-patent products) with an intent to further improve profitability. While Pfizer’s patented drugs command higher prices, the off-patent ones are subject to price decline thereby impacting the company’s profitability. After the announcement of Pfizer-Allergan deal, there were speculations about sale/spin-off of Pfizer’s off-patented portfolio. However, with revenue loss due to the broken deal, the plan (if still any) to sell off-patented business is likely to be put in freezer for some time to come. This could also mean more efforts on research and development front, and being inherently a research driven company, Pfizer has some potentially lucrative drugs in pipeline (including cholesterol lowering and cancer drugs).

For Allergan, the broken deal means looking for alternative ways to strengthen its position outside the USA. The company can take inorganic route to achieve this. No headway was made towards operations restructuring of the merged entity. Therefore, in all likelihood, the research and development assets of Allergan will remain intact, one positive outcome for the company out of the broken deal, as it has some good candidates in the field of ophthalmology, urology, and women’s health. With sale of its generic business to Israeli rival Teva Pharmaceuticals in July 2015, Allergan showed the intent to focus on patented products, therefore the company will have to look for means to raise its R&D budget.

The broken Pfizer-Allergan deal will remain in discussion in coming days from the point of view of missed opportunities for both Pfizer and Allergan, as well as for the political angle involved. Even if the decision was politically motivated, it may have put moratorium on inversion as a strategy for the time being, and it would be interesting to track moves not only in the pharmaceutical space but in other industries as well, following the new regulatory regime.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Pfizer-Allergan Deal – What’s in Store for Allergan

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In November 2015, Pfizer and Allergan announced a US$160 billion merger deal. Once finalized, the Pfizer-Allergan deal would follow three large mergers/acquisitions concluded by Pfizer in the last 15 years. Though relocation to Ireland to save higher corporate tax in USA is apparently the main purpose of this merger, it is expected to create a pharmaceutical powerhouse with more than US$60 billion in annual revenue. In the light of competitive advantage this deal is anticipated to yield, it becomes imperative to look at Pfizer’s evolution since its first mega deal in 2000.

Pfizer acquired US-based Warner-Lambert in a US$110 billion deal in 2000. With this acquisition, Pfizer gained ownership of blockbuster anti-cholesterol drug Lipitor, besides some popular consumer health brands, such as Listerine. Lambert deal was shortly followed by US$60 billion purchase of US-based Pharmacia in 2003. The deal, while catapulting Pfizer’s revenue by more than US$12 billion, allowed it to gain control of successful brands, such as Celebrex (inflammation) and Xalatan (glaucoma), along with R&D pipeline of cancer drugs and a specialist-focused sales force of Pharmacia.

Pfizer waited six years for its next acquisition, and bought US-based Wyeth for US$68 billion in 2009. This deal came amid imminent expiry of Pfizer’s 14 patents through 2014, including its best-selling drug Lipitor in 2011. Pfizer looked to benefit from Wyeth’s leadership position in vaccines, nutritionals, and biologics, including Prevnar, the first pneumococcal vaccine for infants. Wyeth’s portfolio potential had indeed been locked, as evident in the net 30%-90% increase in sales of its key brands between 2009 and 2014, post-acquisition.

These three deals helped Pfizer in becoming a US$50 billion company with a diverse product portfolio. However, it came with a challenge of ensuring operational efficiency and leveraging synergies with acquired companies. This was achieved through a range of adjustments, including lay-offs to eliminate overlaps and to consolidate various functions. Pfizer deals were severe on the employees of acquired companies, with more than 90,000 jobs eliminated (which may have included those lost to attrition) between 2000 and 2014. At the time of each deal, there were apprehensions regarding the future of research and development in Pfizer. Though the company managed to maintain its R&D budget at about 16% of revenues, several sites (including six from Wyeth and two from Pharmacia) were closed post acquisitions. It was soon reflected in the company’s product pipe line, with only 17 applications filed for new product approval between 2007 and 2014, in contrast to 43 during 2000-2006.

To sum up Pfizer’s strategy, the company acquired rivals with blockbuster brands to boost its topline, and to benefit from pooling of resources. The strategy worked on most counts, except for Celebrex where the sales failed to take off partially due to pull-out (from market) of a rival drug (Merck’s Vioxx) in 2004 owing to safety reasons. Notwithstanding the criticism for massive lay-offs, Pfizer managed to create a lean organization, thereby improving its revenue per employee.

Pfizer Performance Timeline (2000-2014)

Pfizer’s next acquisition target, Allergan, came in to existence following Ireland-based Actavis’ acquisition of USA-based Allergan Inc. in March 2015, post which the combined entity was renamed Allergan. Allergan then sold its generic drugs business to Israeli rival Teva Pharmaceuticals in July 2015.

As Pfizer’s deal with Allergan looks in sight, there are speculations regarding future shape of the combined entity in terms of employee strength, sales focus, and future product pipeline (i.e. R&D).

Pfizer-Allergan deal involves trimming of sales and administration expenses by more than US$1.0 billion. This is likely to be achieved (mostly) in North America where Allergan operations are concentrated.

Cuts worth more than US$600 million are expected in R&D. With Teva deal, Allergan showed intent to focus on branded proprietary drugs, and Pfizer is also a predominantly green-field research organization. Therefore it is not clear yet, which product programs will face the ax due to little overlap in research focus of two companies.

Research Focus of Allergan and Pfizer

As Allergan declared end to lay-offs in June 2015, it was expected that most of the Actavis acquisition-related restructuring activity was over by the time Pfizer-Allergan deal was announced. This means the cost savings linked with Pfizer-Allergan merger will result from the existing operations (as of November 2015) of the two companies.

EOS Perspective

Based on precedence of Pfizer takeovers, there is a likelihood that Allergan might bear most of the brunt of cost cutting measures. However, at the outset, a simple merger is not likely to impact either efficiency or earnings (from R&D perspective) of the combined entity due to nearly identical revenue per employee (as of 2014) for both the companies, and Allergan’s significantly lower R&D expenditure (8% of its revenue vs. Pfizer’s 16%).

Cost cutting is likely to be undertaken with an eye on revenue and profitability in mid to long term. From Allergan’s perspective, we anticipate this to be achieved through the following:

  • Focus on products in the pipeline with good growth prospects: Allergan’s Rapastinel (anti-depressant) and Vraylar (schizophrenia) are in this category; another option for Pfizer-Allergan is to focus on drugs that are in advanced stages of trials i.e. Phase III and IV

  • Focus on high revenue earning products: While most Pfizer products (including those off-patented in recent years) generate revenues in the range of US$200 million to US$5 billion, Allergan’s portfolio is still underdeveloped (due to limited global exposure) except for few products from central nervous system (CNS), gastroenterology, and women’s health segments

Possible Restructuring Approach for Pfizer-Allergan

At present, only mere speculations can be offered regarding the future shape of the combined entity, as no concrete steps have been announced. It will be interesting to track the decisions taken by Pfizer-Allergan in the coming months to achieve targeted cost savings.

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